Time Series Analysis and Macroeconometric Modelling

The Collected Papers of Kenneth F. Wallis

Author: Kenneth Frank Wallis

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

ISBN: 9781782541622

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 426

View: 1843

'An excellent reference volume of this author's work, bringing together articles published over a 25 year span on the statistical analysis of economic time series, large scale macroeconomic modelling and the interface between them.' - Aslib Book Guide This major volume of essays by Kenneth F. Wallis features 28 articles published over a quarter of a century on the statistical analysis of economic time series, large-scale macroeconometric modelling, and the interface between them. The first part deals with time-series econometrics and includes significant early contributions to the development of the LSE tradition in time-series econometrics, which is the dominant British tradition and has considerable influence worldwide. Later sections discuss theoretical and practical issues in modelling seasonality and forecasting with applications in both large-scale and small-scale models. The final section summarizes the research programme of the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau, a unique comparison project among economy-wide macroeconometric models.

The Analysis of Time Series

An Introduction, Sixth Edition

Author: Chris Chatfield

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9780203491683

Category: Mathematics

Page: 352

View: 434

Since 1975, The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction has introduced legions of statistics students and researchers to the theory and practice of time series analysis. With each successive edition, bestselling author Chris Chatfield has honed and refined his presentation, updated the material to reflect advances in the field, and presented interesting new data sets. The sixth edition is no exception. It provides an accessible, comprehensive introduction to the theory and practice of time series analysis. The treatment covers a wide range of topics, including ARIMA probability models, forecasting methods, spectral analysis, linear systems, state-space models, and the Kalman filter. It also addresses nonlinear, multivariate, and long-memory models. The author has carefully updated each chapter, added new discussions, incorporated new datasets, and made those datasets available for download from www.crcpress.com. A free online appendix on time series analysis using R can be accessed at http://people.bath.ac.uk/mascc/TSA.usingR.doc. Highlights of the Sixth Edition: A new section on handling real data New discussion on prediction intervals A completely revised and restructured chapter on more advanced topics, with new material on the aggregation of time series, analyzing time series in finance, and discrete-valued time series A new chapter of examples and practical advice Thorough updates and revisions throughout the text that reflect recent developments and dramatic changes in computing practices over the last few years The analysis of time series can be a difficult topic, but as this book has demonstrated for two-and-a-half decades, it does not have to be daunting. The accessibility, polished presentation, and broad coverage of The Analysis of Time Series make it simply the best introduction to the subject available.

Time Series Data Analysis Using EViews

Author: I. Gusti Ngurah Agung

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118176308

Category: Mathematics

Page: 352

View: 9103

Do you want to recognize the most suitable models for analysisof statistical data sets? This book provides a hands-on practical guide to using the mostsuitable models for analysis of statistical data sets using EViews- an interactive Windows-based computer software program forsophisticated data analysis, regression, and forecasting - todefine and test statistical hypotheses. Rich in examples and withan emphasis on how to develop acceptable statistical models, TimeSeries Data Analysis Using EViews is a perfect complement totheoretical books presenting statistical or econometric models fortime series data. The procedures introduced are easily extendibleto cross-section data sets. The author: Provides step-by-step directions on how to apply EViewssoftware to time series data analysis Offers guidance on how to develop and evaluate alternativeempirical models, permitting the most appropriate to be selectedwithout the need for computational formulae Examines a variety of times series models, including continuousgrowth, discontinuous growth, seemingly causal, regression, ARCH,and GARCH as well as a general form of nonlinear time series andnonparametric models Gives over 250 illustrative examples and notes based on theauthor's own empirical findings, allowing the advantages andlimitations of each model to be understood Describes the theory behind the models in comprehensiveappendices Provides supplementary information and data sets An essential tool for advanced undergraduate and graduatestudents taking finance or econometrics courses. Statistics, lifesciences, and social science students, as well as appliedresearchers, will also find this book an invaluable resource.

Developments in Time Series Analysis

Author: T. Subba Rao

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9780412492600

Category: Mathematics

Page: 440

View: 5069

This volume contains 27 papers, written by time series analysts, dealing with statistical theory, methodology and applications. The emphasis is on the recent developments in the analysis of linear, onlinear (non-Gaussian), stationary and nonstationary time series. The topics include cointegration, estimation and asymptotic theory, Kalman filtering, nonparametric statistical inference, long memory models, nonlinear models, spectral analysis of stationary and nonstationary processes. Quite a number of papers are devoted to modelling and analysis of real time series, and the econometricians, mathematical statisticians, communications engineers and scientists who use time series techniques and Fourier analysis should find the papers in this volume useful.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Author: Andrew C. Harvey

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9780521405737

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 554

View: 7184

A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.

The Statistical Analysis of Time Series

Author: Theodore W. Anderson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118150392

Category: Mathematics

Page: 704

View: 6323

The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that havebecome recognized classics in their respective fields. With thesenew unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend thelife of these important works by making them available to futuregenerations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently availablein the Series: T. W. Anderson Statistical Analysis of Time SeriesT. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming inStatistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey TheElements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the NaturalSciences George E. P. Box & George C. Tiao Bayesian Inferencein Statistical Analysis R. W. Carter Simple Groups of Lie TypeWilliam G. Cochran & Gertrude M. Cox Experimental Designs,Second Edition Richard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus,Volume I Richard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus, VolumeII Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods of MathematicalPhysics, Volume I Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods ofMathematical Physics, Volume II D. R. Cox Planning of ExperimentsHarold M. S. Coxeter Introduction to Modern Geometry, SecondEdition Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Representation Theoryof Finite Groups and Associative Algebras Charles W. Curtis &Irving Reiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications toFinite Groups and Orders, Volume I Charles W. Curtis & IrvingReiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications to FiniteGroups and Orders, Volume II Bruno de Finetti Theory ofProbability, Volume 1 Bruno de Finetti Theory of Probability,Volume 2 W. Edwards Deming Sample Design in Business Research Amosde Shalit & Herman Feshbach Theoretical Nuclear Physics, Volume1 --Nuclear Structure J. L. Doob Stochastic Processes NelsonDunford & Jacob T. Schwartz Linear Operators, Part One, GeneralTheory Nelson Dunford & Jacob T. Schwartz Linear Operators,Part Two, Spectral Theory--Self Adjoint Operators in Hilbert SpaceNelson Dunford & Jacob T. Schwartz Linear Operators, PartThree, Spectral Operators Herman Fsehbach Theoretical NuclearPhysics: Nuclear Reactions Bernard Friedman Lectures onApplications-Oriented Mathematics Gerald d. Hahn & Samuel S.Shapiro Statistical Models in Engineering Morris H. Hansen, WilliamN. Hurwitz & William G. Madow Sample Survey Methods and Theory,Volume I--Methods and Applications Morris H. Hansen, William N.Hurwitz & William G. Madow Sample Survey Methods and Theory,Volume II--Theory Peter Henrici Applied and Computational ComplexAnalysis, Volume 1--Power Series--lntegration--ConformalMapping--Location of Zeros Peter Henrici Applied and ComputationalComplex Analysis, Volume 2--Special Functions--IntegralTransforms--Asymptotics--Continued Fractions Peter Henrici Appliedand Computational Complex Analysis, Volume 3--Discrete FourierAnalysis--Cauchy Integrals--Construction of ConformalMaps--Univalent Functions Peter Hilton & Yel-Chiang Wu A Coursein Modern Algebra Harry Hochetadt Integral Equations Erwin O.Kreyezig Introductory Functional Analysis with Applications WilliamH. Louisell Quantum Statistical Properties of Radiation All HasanNayfeh Introduction to Perturbation Techniques Emanuel ParzenModern Probability Theory and Its Applications P.M. Prenter Splinesand Variational Methods Walter Rudin Fourier Analysis on Groups C.L. Siegel Topics in Complex Function Theory, Volume I--EllipticFunctions and Uniformization Theory C. L. Siegel Topics in ComplexFunction Theory, Volume II--Automorphic and Abelian integrals C. LSiegel Topics in Complex Function Theory, Volume III--AbelianFunctions & Modular Functions of Several Variables J. J. StokerDifferential Geometry J. J. Stoker Water Waves: The MathematicalTheory with Applications J. J. Stoker Nonlinear Vibrations inMechanical and Electrical Systems

Time Series Analysis

Author: Henrik Madsen

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 142005967X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 400

View: 8372

With a focus on analyzing and modeling linear dynamic systems using statistical methods, Time Series Analysis formulates various linear models, discusses their theoretical characteristics, and explores the connections among stochastic dynamic models. Emphasizing the time domain description, the author presents theorems to highlight the most important results, proofs to clarify some results, and problems to illustrate the use of the results for modeling real-life phenomena. The book first provides the formulas and methods needed to adapt a second-order approach for characterizing random variables as well as introduces regression methods and models, including the general linear model. It subsequently covers linear dynamic deterministic systems, stochastic processes, time domain methods where the autocorrelation function is key to identification, spectral analysis, transfer-function models, and the multivariate linear process. The text also describes state space models and recursive and adaptivemethods. The final chapter examines a host of practical problems, including the predictions of wind power production and the consumption of medicine, a scheduling system for oil delivery, and the adaptive modeling of interest rates. Concentrating on the linear aspect of this subject, Time Series Analysis provides an accessible yet thorough introduction to the methods for modeling linear stochastic systems. It will help you understand the relationship between linear dynamic systems and linear stochastic processes.

Time Series

Data Analysis and Theory

Author: David R. Brillinger

Publisher: SIAM

ISBN: 0898715016

Category: Mathematics

Page: 540

View: 2077

This text employs basic techniques of univariate and multivariate statistics for the analysis of time series and signals.

Case Studies in Time Series Analysis

Author: Zhongjie Xie

Publisher: World Scientific

ISBN: 9789810210175

Category: Science

Page: 282

View: 6066

This book is a monograph on case studies using time series analysis, which includes the main research works applied to practical projects by the author in the past 15 years. The works cover different problems in broad fields, such as: engineering, labour protection, astronomy, physiology, endocrinology, oil development, etc. The first part of this book introduces some basic knowledge of time series analysis which is necessary for the reader to understand the methods and the theory used in the procedure for solving problems. The second part is the main part of this book ? case studies in different fields.

Time Series Analysis

Author: Wilfredo Palma

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118634322

Category: Mathematics

Page: 616

View: 6823

A modern and accessible guide to the analysis of introductory time series data Featuring an organized and self-contained guide, Time Series Analysis provides a broad introduction to the most fundamental methodologies and techniques of time series analysis. The book focuses on the treatment of univariate time series by illustrating a number of well-known models such as ARMA and ARIMA. Providing contemporary coverage, the book features several useful and newly-developed techniques such as weak and strong dependence, Bayesian methods, non-Gaussian data, local stationarity, missing values and outliers, and threshold models. Time Series Analysis includes practical applications of time series methods throughout, as well as: Real-world examples and exercise sets that allow readers to practice the presented methods and techniques Numerous detailed analyses of computational aspects related to the implementation of methodologies including algorithm efficiency, arithmetic complexity, and process time End-of-chapter proposed problems and bibliographical notes to deepen readers’ knowledge of the presented material Appendices that contain details on fundamental concepts and select solutions of the problems implemented throughout A companion website with additional data files and computer codes Time Series Analysis is an excellent textbook for undergraduate and beginning graduate-level courses in time series as well as a supplement for students in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics. The book is also a useful reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, and finance. Wilfredo Palma, PhD, is Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Dr. Palma has published several refereed articles and has received over a dozen academic honors and awards. His research interests include time series analysis, prediction theory, state space systems, linear models, and econometrics. He is the author of Long-Memory Time Series: Theory and Methods, also published by Wiley.

Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting

Author: Peter J. Brockwell,Richard A. Davis

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319298542

Category: Mathematics

Page: 425

View: 3452

This book is aimed at the reader who wishes to gain a working knowledge of time series and forecasting methods as applied to economics, engineering and the natural and social sciences. It assumes knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra and elementary statistics. This third edition contains detailed instructions for the use of the professional version of the Windows-based computer package ITSM2000, now available as a free download from the Springer Extras website. The logic and tools of time series model-building are developed in detail. Numerous exercises are included and the software can be used to analyze and forecast data sets of the user's own choosing. The book can also be used in conjunction with other time series packages such as those included in R. The programs in ITSM2000 however are menu-driven and can be used with minimal investment of time in the computational details. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Many additional special topics are also covered. New to this edition: A chapter devoted to Financial Time Series Introductions to Brownian motion, Lévy processes and Itô calculus An expanded section on continuous-time ARMA processes

Analysis of Financial Time Series

Author: Ruey S. Tsay

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781118017098

Category: Mathematics

Page: 720

View: 4477

This book provides a broad, mature, and systematic introduction to current financial econometric models and their applications to modeling and prediction of financial time series data. It utilizes real-world examples and real financial data throughout the book to apply the models and methods described. The author begins with basic characteristics of financial time series data before covering three main topics: Analysis and application of univariate financial time series The return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods Key features of the new edition include additional coverage of modern day topics such as arbitrage, pair trading, realized volatility, and credit risk modeling; a smooth transition from S-Plus to R; and expanded empirical financial data sets. The overall objective of the book is to provide some knowledge of financial time series, introduce some statistical tools useful for analyzing these series and gain experience in financial applications of various econometric methods.

Multivariate Tests for Time Series Models

Author: Jeff B. Cromwell

Publisher: SAGE

ISBN: 9780803954403

Category: Social sciences

Page: 98

View: 9192

Which time series test should researchers choose to best describe the interactions among a set of time series variables? Providing guidelines for identifying the appropriate multivariate time series model to use, this book explores the nature and application of these increasingly complex tests.

Time Series Analysis

Regression Techniques

Author: Charles W. Ostrom

Publisher: SAGE

ISBN: 9780803931350

Category: Social Science

Page: 95

View: 6942

The great advantage of time series regression analysis is that it can both explain the past and predict the future behavior of variables. This volume explores the regression (or structural equation) approach to the analysis of time series data. It also introduces the Box-Jenkins time series method in an attempt to bridge partially the gap between the two approaches.

An Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

With Applications of SAS® and SPSS®

Author: Robert Alan Yaffee,Monnie McGee

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 0080478700

Category: Mathematics

Page: 528

View: 1055

Providing a clear explanation of the fundamental theory of time series analysis and forecasting, this book couples theory with applications of two popular statistical packages--SAS and SPSS. The text examines moving average, exponential smoothing, Census X-11 deseasonalization, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, and autoregressive error models and has brief discussions of ARCH and GARCH models. The book features treatments of forecast improvement with regression and autoregression combination models and model and forecast evaluation, along with a sample size analysis for common time series models to attain adequate statistical power. The careful linkage of the theoretical constructs with the practical considerations involved in utilizing the statistical packages makes it easy for the user to properly apply these techniques. Describes principal approaches to time series analysis and forecasting Presents examples from public opinion research, policy analysis, political science, economics, and sociology Math level pitched to general social science usage Glossary makes the material accessible for readers at all levels

The Econometric Analysis of Time Series

Author: Andrew C. Harvey

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 9780262081894

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 387

View: 734

The Econometric Analysis of Time Series focuses on the statistical aspects of model building, with an emphasis on providing an understanding of the main ideas and concepts in econometrics rather than presenting a series of rigorous proofs.

Introduction to Statistical Time Series

Author: Wayne A. Fuller,J.K. Watson,Wayne Arthur Fuller

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780471552390

Category: Mathematics

Page: 698

View: 5831

The subject of time series is of considerable interest, especiallyamong researchers in econometrics, engineering, and the naturalsciences. As part of the prestigious Wiley Series in Probabilityand Statistics, this book provides a lucid introduction to thefield and, in this new Second Edition, covers the importantadvances of recent years, including nonstationary models, nonlinearestimation, multivariate models, state space representations, andempirical model identification. New sections have also been addedon the Wold decomposition, partial autocorrelation, long memoryprocesses, and the Kalman filter. Major topics include: Moving average and autoregressive processes Introduction to Fourier analysis Spectral theory and filtering Large sample theory Estimation of the mean and autocorrelations Estimation of the spectrum Parameter estimation Regression, trend, and seasonality Unit root and explosive time series To accommodate a wide variety of readers, review material,especially on elementary results in Fourier analysis, large samplestatistics, and difference equations, has been included.

Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Author: David McDowall,Richard McCleary,Errol Meidinger,Richard A. Hay, Jr,Professor of Criminology Law & Society and Planning Policy & Design Richard McCleary

Publisher: SAGE

ISBN: 9780803914933

Category: Social Science

Page: 96

View: 890

Describes ARIMA, or Box-Tiao models, widely used in the analysis of interrupted time series quasi-experiments. Assumes no statistical background beyond simple correlation.Learn more about "The Little Green Book" - QASS Series! Click Here

Economic Time Series

Modeling and Seasonality

Author: William R. Bell,Scott H. Holan,Tucker S. McElroy

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 143984657X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 554

View: 2718

Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time series modeling and seasonal adjustment, as is reflected both in the contents of the chapters and in their authorship, with contributors coming from academia and government statistical agencies. For easier perusal and absorption, the contents have been grouped into seven topical sections: Section I deals with periodic modeling of time series, introducing, applying, and comparing various seasonally periodic models Section II examines the estimation of time series components when models for series are misspecified in some sense, and the broader implications this has for seasonal adjustment and business cycle estimation Section III examines the quantification of error in X-11 seasonal adjustments, with comparisons to error in model-based seasonal adjustments Section IV discusses some practical problems that arise in seasonal adjustment: developing asymmetric trend-cycle filters, dealing with both temporal and contemporaneous benchmark constraints, detecting trading-day effects in monthly and quarterly time series, and using diagnostics in conjunction with model-based seasonal adjustment Section V explores outlier detection and the modeling of time series containing extreme values, developing new procedures and extending previous work Section VI examines some alternative models and inference procedures for analysis of seasonal economic time series Section VII deals with aspects of modeling, estimation, and forecasting for nonseasonal economic time series By presenting new methodological developments as well as pertinent empirical analyses and reviews of established methods, the book provides much that is stimulating and practically useful for the serious researcher and analyst of economic time series.

Time Series Analysis

Forecasting and Control

Author: George E. P. Box,Gwilym M. Jenkins,Gregory C. Reinsel,Greta M. Ljung

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118674928

Category: Mathematics

Page: 712

View: 2123

Praise for the Fourth Edition "The book follows faithfully the style of the original edition. The approach is heavily motivated by real-world time series, and by developing a complete approach to model building, estimation, forecasting and control." —Mathematical Reviews Bridging classical models and modern topics, the Fifth Edition of Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control maintains a balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series. Also describing the latest developments that have occurred in the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering, the Fifth Edition continues to serve as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, classifying, testing, and analyzing stochastic models for time series and describes their use in five important areas of application: forecasting; determining the transfer function of a system; modeling the effects of intervention events; developing multivariate dynamic models; and designing simple control schemes. Along with these classical uses, the new edition covers modern topics with new features that include: A redesigned chapter on multivariate time series analysis with an expanded treatment of Vector Autoregressive, or VAR models, along with a discussion of the analytical tools needed for modeling vector time series An expanded chapter on special topics covering unit root testing, time-varying volatility models such as ARCH and GARCH, nonlinear time series models, and long memory models Numerous examples drawn from finance, economics, engineering, and other related fields The use of the publicly available R software for graphical illustrations and numerical calculations along with scripts that demonstrate the use of R for model building and forecasting Updates to literature references throughout and new end-of-chapter exercises Streamlined chapter introductions and revisions that update and enhance the exposition Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition is a valuable real-world reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, finance, and related fields. The book is also an excellent textbook for beginning graduate-level courses in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics.