Kleines Handbuch für den Umgang mit Unwissen

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Albrecht Knaus Verlag

ISBN: 364111991X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 128

View: 9832

Eine Anleitung zum Nach-, Quer- und Gegendenken »Ich weiß, dass ich nichts wei߫, erkannte bereits Sokrates. Wie wir aber mit dem Unbekannten, mit dem, was wir nicht wissen, faktisch umgehen und idealerweise umgehen sollten, das beschreibt der Risikoforscher und Essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb in seinem Handbuch. Er enthüllt die Begrenztheiten unserer Datenverliebtheit genauso wie die folgenschweren Irrtümer und Voreingenommenheiten unseres Denkens. So zeigt er, wie uns Denkfehler, falsche Kategorien und blinde Flecken immer wieder in die Irre führen – und wie wir mit Unwissen gewinnbringend umgehen können. Denn: »Für den einen ist ein Irrtum bloß ein Irrtum, für den anderen ist er eine Information.«

The Black Swan: Second Edition

The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility"

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House

ISBN: 9780679604181

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 480

View: 8457

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review

The Black Swan

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: National Geographic Books

ISBN: 0812979184

Category:

Page: 366

View: 5891

In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.

Das Risiko und sein Preis

Skin in the Game

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Verlagsgruppe Random House GmbH

ISBN: 3641234522

Category: Social Science

Page: 384

View: 4976

Warum wir nur denen vertrauen sollten, die etwas zu verlieren haben Stehen wir für die Risiken ein, die wir verursachen? Zu viele der Menschen, die auf der Welt Macht und Einfluss haben, so Nassim Nicholas Taleb, müssen nicht wirklich den Kopf hinhalten für das, was sie tun und veranlassen. Intellektuelle, Journalisten, Bürokraten, Banker, ihnen vor allem wirft er vor, kein »Skin in the Game« zu haben. Weil sie den Preis nicht bezahlen müssen, wenn sie irren, fällen sie schlechte Entscheidungen. Taleb zeigt anhand vieler Beispiele, wie »Skin in the Game«, ein fundamentales Konzept des Risikomanagements, auf alle Bereiche unseres Lebens übertragen werden kann. Sein neues Buch, so provozierend und bahnbrechend wie »Der Schwarze Schwan«, fordert uns heraus, alles, was wir über Risiko und Verantwortung in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft zu wissen glauben, neu zu denken.

Narren des Zufalls

die verborgene Rolle des Glücks an den Finanzmärkten und im Rest des Lebens

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 352750432X

Category:

Page: 352

View: 9181


The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Penguin Books, Limited (UK)

ISBN: 9781846145650

Category: Forecasting

Page: 444

View: 6972

A slipcased hardback edition of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's bestselling masterpiece, with the original first Penguin edition artwork.What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

Oil, electricity and Taleb’s ‚Black Swan‘

The impact of the highly improbable on energy and how to mitigate it

Author: Ullrich Müller

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

ISBN: 365631974X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 60

View: 3617

Master's Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: excellent, Corvinus University Budapest (School of Management), language: English, abstract: The paper is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the ‘Black Swan’. This concept has been made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has become a popular point of reference ever since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. Based on his work, the paper first defines the concept of the ‘Black Swan’ as an extremely unlikely high impact event, which is evidently unpredictable ex ante; however, is regarded as potentially avoidable by most observers ex post facto. The underlying assumption is, that against commonly held believe, it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevantly many events that makes history, but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers, or hence, ‘Black Swans’. Consequently, in its second part the paper focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models used in the energy business today, which are mainly based on driver based models. Relying on Gaussian Bell Curve type normal distributions in order to predict future supply and demand, these models try to predict future price and value chain developments, ultimately searching for a strategic direction. Using historic data and experiences in order to review to what extent the ‘Black Swan’ influenced the development of the energy world in the past, the paper questions this approach by showing that time and again similar predictions have been rendered obsolete by real developments. In order to apply the necessary methodological rigor, ‘Black Swans’ and their impact are measured according to predefined criteria and indicators, elaborated in the first part of the paper. These indicators are mainly qualitative, however, as an empirical anchor the paper uses the historical development of the oil price, focusing on peaks and lows. The most striking historical cases of sudden price rise or decline are examined in detail in order to find commonalities and differences. Finally, based on the findings of this historical analysis, the paper raises the question, whether it is possible to draw any practical conclusions for the future, looking for methods, which could provide protection from ‘Black Swan’ events.

Dein Ego ist dein Feind

So besiegst du deinen größten Gegner

Author: Ryan Holiday

Publisher: FinanzBuch Verlag

ISBN: 3960920458

Category: Self-Help

Page: 288

View: 8341

Viele Menschen glauben, dass die Gründe, die sie daran hindern, erfolgreich zu sein, in ihrer Umwelt zu finden sind. Aber in Wirklichkeit steckt der größte Feind in jedem von uns selbst: unser Ego. Es macht uns blind für unsere Fehler, verhindert, dass wir aus ihnen lernen, und hemmt unsere Entwicklung. Denn gerade in Zeiten, in denen die schamlose Selbstdarstellung in sozialen Netzwerken oder im Reality-TV eine Selbstverständlichkeit ist, liegt die wahre Herausforderung in der Idee, weniger Zeit in das Erzählen der eigenen Größe zu stecken und stattdessen die wirklich wichtigen Missionen des Lebens zu meistern. Mit einer Fülle an Beispielen aus Literatur, Philosophie und Geschichte zeigt Ryan Holiday eindrucksvoll und praxisnah, wie die Überwindung des eigenen Egos zum unnachahmlichen Erfolg verhilft. Bewaffnet mit den Erkenntnissen aus diesem Buch kann sich jeder seinem größten Feind stellen – dem eigenen Ego.

Ein Mann für alle Märkte

Wie ich das Casino und den Markt geschlagen habe

Author: Edward O. Thorp

Publisher: Börsenbuchverlag

ISBN: 3864705355

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 520

View: 9855

Edward Thorp ist eine lebende Legende – auf dem Gebiet des Glücksspiels UND im Bereich der Finanzmärkte. In den 60er-Jahren veränderte der Mathematik-Professor Blackjack für immer, weil er eine Methode entwickelte, die Bank zu schlagen. In der Folge wurden die Spielregeln geändert. Für seine Errungenschaften als Hedgefonds-Manager nahm Jack Schwager ihn in den illustren Kreis der "Magier der Märkte" auf. Mit "Ein Mann für alle Märkte" legt Thorp seine Autobiografie vor, die für Glücksspielbegeisterte wie Geldanleger – ob privat oder professionell – gleichermaßen faszinierende Lektüre ist.

Incerto 4-Book Bundle

Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House

ISBN: 0812997697

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 1568

View: 2619

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Kino zwischen Tag und Traum

psychoanalytische Zugänge zu "Black Swan"

Author: Dirk Blothner

Publisher: Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht

ISBN: 3525461232

Category: Psychology

Page: 140

View: 1035

Fur Psychoanalytiker findet Kino in einem Zwischenreich von Tag und Traum statt. Das gilt besonders fur Filme mit traumahnlichen Zugen, wie es bei dem Psychothriller Black Swan von Darren Aronofsky augenfallig ist. Die Ebenen von Alltagsrealitat, Phantasie und Traum gehen ineinander uber. Der Film fuhrt mehr und mehr in die Welt psychopathologischer Symptome und Tauschungen. Es kommen surreale Bilder und Schockmomente zur Geltung, die den allmahlichen Zerfall der Personlichkeit der Protagonistin veranschaulichen. Sechs kenntnisreiche Filmpsychoanalytiker analysieren Inhalt und Wirkung dieses viel beachteten und mit Preisen ausgezeichneten Films. Dabei wird offenbar, dass die Filmpsychoanalyse recht unterschiedliche methodische Ansatzpunkte aufweist, die in diesem Buch erstmals in dem abschliessenden Beitrag von Ralf Zwiebel umfangreich herausgearbeitet werden. Auf diese Weise wird in der noch jungen, aber sehr beliebten Filmpsychoanalyse eine Methodendiskussion initiiert.

Stormbreaker

Alex Riders erster Fall

Author: Anthony Horowitz,Karlheinz Dürr

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9783473582891

Category: Rider, Alex (Fictitious character)

Page: 246

View: 2763

Alex Rider wird zum britischen Geheimdienst zitiert. Sein verstorbener Onkel war ein Top-Agent und hat ihm einen ungelösten Fall hinterlassen: Stormbreaker. Plötzlich schwebt nicht nur Alex in tödlicher Gefahr. Denn Strombreaker ist ein Projekt, da nicht nur Englands Schulen auslöschen könnte ...

The Blank Swan

The End of Probability

Author: Elie Ayache

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780470661765

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 496

View: 8058

October 19th 1987 was a day of huge change for the global finance industry. On this day the stock market crashed, the Nobel Prize winning Black-Scholes formula failed and volatility smiles were born, and on this day Elie Ayache began his career, on the trading floor of the French Futures and Options Exchange. Experts everywhere sought to find a model for this event, and ways to simulate it in order to avoid a recurrence in the future, but the one thing that struck Elie that day was the belief that what actually happened on 19th October 1987 is simply non reproducible outside 19th October 1987 – you cannot reduce it to a chain of causes and effects, or even to a random generator, that can then be reproduced or represented in a theoretical framework. The Blank Swan is Elie's highly original treatise on the financial markets – presenting a totally revolutionary rethinking of derivative pricing and technology. It is not a diatribe against Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan, but criticises the whole background or framework of predictable and unpredictable events – white and black swans alike - , i.e. the very category of prediction. In this revolutionary book, Elie redefines the components of the technology needed to price and trade derivatives. Most importantly, and drawing on a long tradition of philosophy of the event from Henri Bergson to Gilles Deleuze, to Alain Badiou, and on a recent brand of philosophy of contingency, embodied by the speculative materialism of Quentin Meillassoux, Elie redefines the market itself against the common perceptions of orthodox financial theory, general equilibrium theory and the sociology of finance. This book will change the way that we think about derivatives and approach the market. If anything derivatives should be renamed contingent claims, where contingency is now absolute and no longer derivative, and the market is just its medium. The book also establishes the missing link between quantitative modelling (no longer dependent on probability theory but on a novel brand of mathematics which Elie calls the mathematics of price) and the reality of the market.

The long tail

Nischenprodukte statt Massenmarkt ; das Geschäft der Zukunft

Author: Chris Anderson

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9783423345316

Category:

Page: 320

View: 8497


Radioforschung

Konzepte, Instrumente und Ergebnisse aus der Praxis

Author: Christa Lindner-Braun

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3322833259

Category: Social Science

Page: 251

View: 7119

Alle hören Radio. Im Vergleich zu Fernsehen und Internet ist es jedoch ein unauffälliges Medium und wird von Öffentlichkeit und Werbung meist unterschätzt. Dem Radio gelingt es immer wieder, sich der veränderten Medienwelt und den Bedürfnissen der Hörer anzupassen. Dazu gibt die Medienforschung wichtige Impulse und zeigt Perspektiven auf. Im SDR entwickelten Psychologen und Soziologen als erste in Deutschland ein System kontinuierlicher Programm- und Publikumsforschung (SDR-Demometer). Ergebnisse und Schlußfolgerungen aus den letzten zehn Jahren werden hier erstmals dargestellt und vermitteln ein facettenreiches Bild vom beliebtesten Tagesmedium der Deutschen. Die Forschung belegt: Radio hat Zukunft, weil es lebendig, präzise und persönlich ist.

Stalking the Black Swan

Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility

Author: Kenneth A. Posner

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 9780231521673

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 3299

Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Lob des Müßiggangs

Author: Bertrand Russell

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9783423308519

Category:

Page: 257

View: 3367

Der Philosoph, Sozialkritiker und Nobelpreisträger Bertrand Russell behandelt in 15 Aufsätzen und Glossen eine Vielfalt an Themen. Das Spektrum reicht von den Vorteilen des Müßiggangs über soziale Aspekte der Architektur, 'unnützes Wissen', die Licht- und Schattenseiten von Kapitalismus, Faschismus, Kommunismus bis zu der Frage 'Was ist die Seele?' oder das Verhältnis von Menschen und Insekten. Obwohl diese Betrachtungen erstmals 1957 erschienen, sind sie doch von überraschender Aktualität, etwa bezüglich des globalen Kapitalismus, Fragen der Erziehung oder des Verhältnisses von Arbeit und Freizeit. Mit Witz und Scharfsinn argumentiert Russell für die Notwendigkeit einer geistigen Unvoreingenommenheit und die Bereitschaft, dogmatische Auffassungen immer wieder kritisch zu hinterfragen.