Realistic Decision Theory

Rules for Nonideal Agents in Nonideal Circumstances

Author: Paul Weirich

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780198038238

Category: Education

Page: 278

View: 7228

Within traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.

Decision Theory with a Human Face

Author: Richard Bradley

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1108547877

Category: Science

Page: 352

View: 5945

When making decisions, people naturally face uncertainty about the potential consequences of their actions due in part to limits in their capacity to represent, evaluate or deliberate. Nonetheless, they aim to make the best decisions possible. In Decision Theory with a Human Face, Richard Bradley develops new theories of agency and rational decision-making, offering guidance on how 'real' agents who are aware of their bounds should represent the uncertainty they face, how they should revise their opinions as a result of experience and how they should make decisions when lacking full awareness of, or precise opinions on relevant contingencies. He engages with the strengths and flaws of Bayesian reasoning, and presents clear and comprehensive explorations of key issues in decision theory, from belief and desire to semantics and learning. His book draws on philosophy, economics, decision science and psychology, and will appeal to readers in all of these disciplines.

Uncertain Computation-based Decision Theory

Author: Aliev Rafig Aziz

Publisher: World Scientific

ISBN: 9813228954

Category: Mathematics

Page: 540

View: 3483

Uncertain computation is a system of computation and reasoning in which the objects of computation are not values of variables but restrictions on values of variables. This compendium includes uncertain computation examples based on interval arithmetic, probabilistic arithmetic, fuzzy arithmetic, Z-number arithmetic, and arithmetic with geometric primitives. The principal problem with the existing decision theories is that they do not have capabilities to deal with such environment. Up to now, no books where decision theories based on all generalizations level of information are considered. Thus, this self-containing volume intends to overcome this gap between real-world settings' decisions and their formal analysis. Contents: Decision EnvironmentAnalysis of the Existing Decision TheoriesInterval ComputationProbabilistic ArithmeticFuzzy Type-1 and Fuzzy Type-2 ComputationsComputation with Z-NumbersComputation with U-NumbersFuzzy Geometry Based ComputationsInterval Granular-Based Decision MakingDecision Making in Fuzzy EnvironmentThe Z-Restriction Centered Decision TheorySimulation and Applications Readership: Researchers, academics, professionals and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences and mathematical economics. Keywords: Uncertain Computation;Decision Making;Interval Arithmetic;Fuzzy Arithmetic;Z-Number;Combined State;Fuzzy EconomicsReview:0

Transformative Experience

Author: L. A. Paul

Publisher: OUP Oxford

ISBN: 0191027812

Category: Philosophy

Page: 120

View: 5928

As we live our lives, we repeatedly make decisions that shape our future circumstances and affect the sort of person we will be. When choosing whether to start a family, or deciding on a career, we often think we can assess the options by imagining what different experiences would be like for us. L. A. Paul argues that, for choices involving dramatically new experiences, we are confronted by the brute fact that we can know very little about our subjective futures. This has serious implications for our decisions. If we make life choices in the way we naturally and intuitively want to—by considering what we care about, and what our future selves will be like if we choose to have the experience—we only learn what we really need to know after we have already committed ourselves. If we try to escape the dilemma by avoiding an experience, we have still made a choice. Choosing rationally, then, may require us to regard big life decisions as choices to make discoveries, small and large, about the intrinsic nature of experience, and to recognize that part of the value of living authentically is to experience one's life and preferences in whatever way they may evolve in the wake of the choices you make. Using classic philosophical examples about the nature of consciousness, and drawing on recent work in normative decision theory, cognitive science, epistemology, and the philosophy of mind, Paul develops a rigorous account of transformative experience that sheds light on how we should understand real-world experience and our capacity to rationally map our subjective futures.

The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory

Author: James M. Joyce

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139471384

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 7280

This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.

Reasoning, rationality, and probability

Author: Maria Carla Galavotti,Roberto Scazzieri,Patrick Suppes

Publisher: Center for the Study of Language and Inf

ISBN: 9781575865577

Category: Philosophy

Page: 303

View: 8087

This volume broadens our concept of reasoning and rationality to allow for a more pluralistic and situational view of human thinking as a practical activity. Drawing on contributors across disciplines including philosophy, economics, psychology, statistics, computer science, engineering, and physics, Reasoning, Rationality, and Probability argues that the search for strong theories should leave room for the construction of context-sensitive conceptual tools. Both science and everyday life, the authors argue, are too complex and multifaceted to be forced into ready-made schemata.

Learning and Coordination

Inductive Deliberation, Equilibrium, and Convention

Author: Peter Vanderschraaf

Publisher: Psychology Press

ISBN: 9780815340393

Category: Mathematics

Page: 222

View: 4314

Vanderschraaf develops a new theory of game theory equilibrium selection in this book. The new theory defends general correlated equilibrium concepts and suggests a new analysis of convention.

Classics in Game Theory

Author: Harold William Kuhn

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9780691011929

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 362

View: 8060

A subfield of mathematics and economics, the theory of games simulates situations in which individuals compete and cooperate with each other to hypothesize a conclusion. The contributions collected here are "classics" from the groundbreaking era of research launched in the late 1940s. These 18 essays constitute the core of game theory as it exists today. An invaluable tool for researchers and students of the sciences.

Motivation and Agency

Author: Alfred R. Mele

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

ISBN: 9780195189520

Category: Self-Help

Page: 264

View: 2404

What place does motivation have in the lives of intelligent agents? Mele's answer is sensitive to the concerns of philosophers of mind and moral philosophers and informed by empirical work. He offers a distinctive, comprehensive, attractive view of human agency. This book stands boldly at the intersection of philosophy of mind, moral philosophy, and metaphysics.

Die 4-Stunden-Woche

Mehr Zeit, mehr Geld, mehr Leben

Author: Timothy Ferriss

Publisher: Ullstein eBooks

ISBN: 3843704457

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 352

View: 7107

Warum arbeiten wir uns eigentlich zu Tode? Haben wir nichts Besseres zu tun? Und ob! - sagt Timothy Ferriss. Der junge Unternehmer war lange Workaholic mit 80-Stunden-Woche. Doch dann erfand er MBA - Management by Absence - und ist seitdem freier, reicher, glücklicher. Mit viel Humor, provokanten Denkanstößen und erprobten Tipps erklärt Ferriss, wie sich die 4-Stunden-Woche bei vollem Lohnausgleich verwirklichen lässt. Der Wegweiser für eine Flucht aus dem Hamsterrad und ein Manifest für eine neue Gewichtung zwischen Leben und Arbeiten.