Realistic Decision Theory

Rules for Nonideal Agents in Nonideal Circumstances

Author: Paul Weirich

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780198038238

Category: Education

Page: 278

View: 4680

Within traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.

The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory

Author: James M. Joyce

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139471384

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 6078

This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.

Human Rights Between Law and Politics

The Margin of Appreciation in Post-National Contexts

Author: Petr Agha

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing

ISBN: 1509902813

Category: Law

Page: 208

View: 8174

This book analyses human rights in post-national contexts and demonstrates, through the case law of the European Court of Human Rights, that the Margin of Appreciation doctrine is an essential part of human rights adjudication. Current approaches have tended to stress the instrumental value of the Margin of Appreciation, or to give it a complementary role within the principle of proportionality, while others have been wholly critical of it. In contradiction to these approaches this volume shows that the doctrine is a genuinely normative principle capable of balancing conflicting values. It explores to what extent the tension between human rights and politics, embodied in the doctrine, might be understood as a mutually reinforcing interplay of variables rather than an entrenched separation. By linking the interpretation of the Margin of Appreciation doctrine to a broader conception of human rights, understood as complex political and moral norms, this volume argues that the doctrine can assist in the formulation of the common good in light of the requirements of the Convention.

Uncertain Computation-based Decision Theory

Author: Aliev Rafig Aziz

Publisher: World Scientific

ISBN: 9813228954

Category: Mathematics

Page: 540

View: 7721

Uncertain computation is a system of computation and reasoning in which the objects of computation are not values of variables but restrictions on values of variables. This compendium includes uncertain computation examples based on interval arithmetic, probabilistic arithmetic, fuzzy arithmetic, Z-number arithmetic, and arithmetic with geometric primitives. The principal problem with the existing decision theories is that they do not have capabilities to deal with such environment. Up to now, no books where decision theories based on all generalizations level of information are considered. Thus, this self-containing volume intends to overcome this gap between real-world settings' decisions and their formal analysis. Contents: Decision EnvironmentAnalysis of the Existing Decision TheoriesInterval ComputationProbabilistic ArithmeticFuzzy Type-1 and Fuzzy Type-2 ComputationsComputation with Z-NumbersComputation with U-NumbersFuzzy Geometry Based ComputationsInterval Granular-Based Decision MakingDecision Making in Fuzzy EnvironmentThe Z-Restriction Centered Decision TheorySimulation and Applications Readership: Researchers, academics, professionals and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences and mathematical economics. Keywords: Uncertain Computation;Decision Making;Interval Arithmetic;Fuzzy Arithmetic;Z-Number;Combined State;Fuzzy EconomicsReview:0

Transformative Experience

Author: L. A. Paul

Publisher: OUP Oxford

ISBN: 0191027812

Category: Philosophy

Page: 120

View: 4323

As we live our lives, we repeatedly make decisions that shape our future circumstances and affect the sort of person we will be. When choosing whether to start a family, or deciding on a career, we often think we can assess the options by imagining what different experiences would be like for us. L. A. Paul argues that, for choices involving dramatically new experiences, we are confronted by the brute fact that we can know very little about our subjective futures. This has serious implications for our decisions. If we make life choices in the way we naturally and intuitively want to—by considering what we care about, and what our future selves will be like if we choose to have the experience—we only learn what we really need to know after we have already committed ourselves. If we try to escape the dilemma by avoiding an experience, we have still made a choice. Choosing rationally, then, may require us to regard big life decisions as choices to make discoveries, small and large, about the intrinsic nature of experience, and to recognize that part of the value of living authentically is to experience one's life and preferences in whatever way they may evolve in the wake of the choices you make. Using classic philosophical examples about the nature of consciousness, and drawing on recent work in normative decision theory, cognitive science, epistemology, and the philosophy of mind, Paul develops a rigorous account of transformative experience that sheds light on how we should understand real-world experience and our capacity to rationally map our subjective futures.

Collective Rationality

Equilibrium in Cooperative Games

Author: Paul Weirich

Publisher: OUP USA

ISBN: 0195388380

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 270

View: 9205

Groups of people perform acts that are subject to standards of rationality. The book's theory of collective rationality explains how to evaluate collective acts. The people engaged in a game of strategy collectively produce an outcome, and the theory reveals what makes some outcomes solutions. It generates new equilibrium standards for solutions to cooperative games.

Decision Space

Multidimensional Utility Analysis

Author: Paul Weirich

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781139430418

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 1177

In Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis, first published in 2001, Paul Weirich increases the power and versatility of utility analysis and in the process advances decision theory. Combining traditional and novel methods of option evaluation into one systematic method of analysis, multidimensional utility analysis is a valuable tool. It provides formulations of important decision principles, such as the principle to maximize expected utility; enriches decision theory in solving recalcitrant decision problems; and provides in particular for the cases in which an expert must make a decision for a group of people. The multiple dimensions of this analysis create a decision space broad enough to accommodate all factors affecting an option's utility. The book will be of interest to advanced students and professionals working in the subject of decision theory, as well as to economists and other social scientists.

Motivation and Agency

Author: Alfred R. Mele

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

ISBN: 9780195189520

Category: Self-Help

Page: 264

View: 6532

What place does motivation have in the lives of intelligent agents? Mele's answer is sensitive to the concerns of philosophers of mind and moral philosophers and informed by empirical work. He offers a distinctive, comprehensive, attractive view of human agency. This book stands boldly at the intersection of philosophy of mind, moral philosophy, and metaphysics.

Decision Theory with a Human Face

Author: Richard Bradley

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107003210

Category: Mathematics

Page: 346

View: 8302

Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.

Models of Decision-Making

Simplifying Choices

Author: Paul Weirich

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 131624072X

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 3595

Classical decision theory evaluates entire worlds, specified so as to include everything a decision-maker cares about. Thus applying decision theory requires performing computations far beyond an ordinary decision-maker's ability. In this book Paul Weirich explains how individuals can simplify and streamline their choices. He shows how different 'parts' of options (intrinsic, temporal, spatiotemporal, causal) are separable, so that we can know what difference one part makes to the value of an option, regardless of what happens in the other parts. He suggests that the primary value of options is found in basic intrinsic attitudes towards outcomes: desires, aversions, or indifferences. And using these two facts he argues that we need only compare small parts of the options we face in order to make a rational decision. This important book will interest readers in decision theory, economics, and the behavioral sciences.

Evidence, Decision and Causality

Author: Arif Ahmed

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107020891

Category: Mathematics

Page: 258

View: 5726

An explanation and defence of evidential decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role.

Learning and Coordination

Inductive Deliberation, Equilibrium, and Convention

Author: Peter Vanderschraaf

Publisher: Psychology Press

ISBN: 9780815340393

Category: Mathematics

Page: 222

View: 1047

Vanderschraaf develops a new theory of game theory equilibrium selection in this book. The new theory defends general correlated equilibrium concepts and suggests a new analysis of convention.

Reasoning, rationality, and probability

Author: Maria Carla Galavotti,Roberto Scazzieri,Patrick Suppes

Publisher: Center for the Study of Language and Inf

ISBN: 9781575865577

Category: Philosophy

Page: 303

View: 6470

This volume broadens our concept of reasoning and rationality to allow for a more pluralistic and situational view of human thinking as a practical activity. Drawing on contributors across disciplines including philosophy, economics, psychology, statistics, computer science, engineering, and physics, Reasoning, Rationality, and Probability argues that the search for strong theories should leave room for the construction of context-sensitive conceptual tools. Both science and everyday life, the authors argue, are too complex and multifaceted to be forced into ready-made schemata.

Risk and Rationality

Author: Lara Buchak,Lara Marie Buchak

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199672164

Category: Mathematics

Page: 260

View: 7265

Lara Buchak sets out a new account of rational decision-making in the face of risk. She argues that the orthodox view (expected utility theory) is too narrow, and suggests an alternative, more permissive theory: one that allows individuals to pay attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario, and vindicates the ordinary decision-maker.