Pierre-Simon Laplace Philosophical Essay on Probabilities

Translated from the fifth French edition of 1825 With Notes by the Translator

Author: Pierre-Simon Laplace

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9780387943497

Category: Mathematics

Page: 270

View: 8548

Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749-1827) is remembered amoung probabilitists today particularly for his "Theorie analytique des probabilites", published in 1812. This is a thorough and modern translation based on the recent re-issue, with its voluminous notes, of the fifth edition of 1826, with preface by Rene Thom and postscript by Bernard Bru. In the second part of the book, the reader is provided with an extensive commentary by the translator including valuable histographical and mathematical remarks and various proofs.

Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey

Author: Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Publisher: International Monetary Fund


Category: Corporations

Page: 20

View: 9337

This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making institutions. The models are especially useful when the firms analyzed do not have publicly traded securities or secondary market prices are unreliable because of low liquidity.

Probability For Dummies

Author: Deborah J. Rumsey

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780470043639

Category: Mathematics

Page: 384

View: 1072

Packed with practical tips and techniques for solving probability problems Increase your chances of acing that probability exam -- or winning at the casino! Whether you're hitting the books for a probability or statistics course or hitting the tables at a casino, working out probabilities can be problematic. This book helps you even the odds. Using easy-to-understand explanations and examples, it demystifies probability -- and even offers savvy tips to boost your chances of gambling success! Discover how to * Conquer combinations and permutations * Understand probability models from binomial to exponential * Make good decisions using probability * Play the odds in poker, roulette, and other games

A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities

Author: Pierre-Simon Laplace

Publisher: Courier Corporation

ISBN: 0486170349

Category: Mathematics

Page: 224

View: 2261

Without the use of higher mathematics, this classic demonstrates the application of probability to games of chance, physics, reliability of witnesses, astronomy, insurance, democratic government, and many other areas.

Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and Its Application to Financial Market Surveillance

Author: Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Publisher: International Monetary Fund


Category: Capital market

Page: 19

View: 3559

This paper reviews a number of different techniques for estimating default probabilities from the prices of publicly traded securities. These techniques are useful for assessing credit exposure, systemic risk, and stress testing financial systems. The choice of techniques was guided by their ease of implementation and their applicability to a wide cross-section of countries and markets. Simple one-period cases are studied to sharpen the reader's intuition, and the usefulness of each technique for enhancing financial surveillance is illustrated with real applications.

Fuzzy Probabilities and Fuzzy Sets for Web Planning

Author: James J. Buckley

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9783540004738

Category: Mathematics

Page: 190

View: 4616

1.1 Introduction This book is written in five major divisions. The first part is the introduc tory chapters consisting of Chapters 1-3. In part two, Chapters 4-10, we use fuzzy probabilities to model a fuzzy queuing system . We switch to employ ing fuzzy arrival rates and fuzzy service rates to model the fuzzy queuing system in part three in Chapters 11 and 12. Optimization models comprise part four in Chapters 13-17. The final part has a brief summary and sug gestions for future research in Chapter 18, and a summary of our numerical methods for calculating fuzzy probabilities, values of objective functions in fuzzy optimization, etc., is in Chapter 19. First we need to be familiar with fuzzy sets. All you need to know about fuzzy sets for this book comprises Chapter 2. Two other items relating to fuzzy sets, needed in Chapters 13-17, are also in Chapter 2: (1) how we plan to handle the maximum/minimum of a fuzzy set; and (2) how we will rank a finite collection of fuzzy numbers from smallest to largest.


The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives

Author: Peter Olofsson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118898834

Category: Mathematics

Page: 328

View: 3030

Praise for the First Edition “If there is anything you want to know, or remindyourself, about probabilities, then look no further than thiscomprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of howto apply probability calculations in real-worldsituations.” - Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National PublicRadio’s “Math Guy” and author of The MathGene and The Unfinished Game From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities,Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, SecondEdition investigates the often surprising effects of risk andchance in our lives. Featuring a timely update, the SecondEdition continues to be the go-to guidebook for an entertainingpresentation on the mathematics of chance and uncertainty. The new edition develops the fundamental mathematics of probabilityin a unique, clear, and informal way so readers with various levelsof experience with probability can understand the little numbersfound in everyday life. Illustrating the concepts of probabilitythrough relevant and engaging real-world applications, theSecond Edition features numerous examples on weatherforecasts, DNA evidence, games and gambling, and medical testing.The revised edition also includes: The application of probability in finance, such as optionpricing The introduction of branching processes and the extinction offamily names An extended discussion on opinion polls and Nate Silver’selection predictions Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, SecondEdition is an ideal reference for anyone who would like toobtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance, as wellas a useful supplementary textbook for students in any coursedealing with probability.

Invariant Probabilities of Transition Functions

Author: Radu Zaharopol

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319057235

Category: Mathematics

Page: 389

View: 8766

The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of the state space, where the invariant ergodic probability measures play a significant role. Other topics covered include: characterizations of the supports of various types of invariant probability measures and the use of these to obtain criteria for unique ergodicity, and the proofs of two mean ergodic theorems for a certain type of transition functions. The book will be of interest to mathematicians working in ergodic theory, dynamical systems, or the theory of Markov processes. Biologists, physicists and economists interested in interacting particle systems and rigorous mathematics will also find this book a valuable resource. Parts of it are suitable for advanced graduate courses. Prerequisites are basic notions and results on functional analysis, general topology, measure theory, the Bochner integral and some of its applications.

Fuzzy Probabilities

New Approach and Applications

Author: James J. Buckley

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 3540250336

Category: Mathematics

Page: 168

View: 5221

In probability and statistics we often have to estimate probabilities and parameters in probability distributions using a random sample. Instead of using a point estimate calculated from the data we propose using fuzzy numbers which are constructed from a set of confidence intervals. In probability calculations we apply constrained fuzzy arithmetic because probabilities must add to one. Fuzzy random variables have fuzzy distributions. A fuzzy normal random variable has the normal distribution with fuzzy number mean and variance. Applications are to queuing theory, Markov chains, inventory control, decision theory and reliability theory.

Probabilities, Laws, and Structures

Author: Dennis Dieks,Wenceslao J. Gonzalez,Stephan Hartmann,Michael Stöltzner,Marcel Weber

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9400730306

Category: Science

Page: 512

View: 9083

This volume, the third in this Springer series, contains selected papers from the four workshops organized by the ESF Research Networking Programme "The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective" (PSE) in 2010: Pluralism in the Foundations of Statistics Points of Contact between the Philosophy of Physics and the Philosophy of Biology The Debate on Mathematical Modeling in the Social Sciences Historical Debates about Logic, Probability and Statistics The volume is accordingly divided in four sections, each of them containing papers coming from the workshop focussing on one of these themes. While the programme's core topic for the year 2010 was probability and statistics, the organizers of the workshops embraced the opportunity of building bridges to more or less closely connected issues in general philosophy of science, philosophy of physics and philosophy of the special sciences. However, papers that analyze the concept of probability for various philosophical purposes are clearly a major theme in this volume, as it was in the previous volumes of the same series. This reflects the impressive productivity of probabilistic approaches in the philosophy of science, which form an important part of what has become known as formal epistemology - although, of course, there are non-probabilistic approaches in formal epistemology as well. It is probably fair to say that Europe has been particularly strong in this area of philosophy in recent years.​

Statistical and Inductive Probabilities

Author: Hugues Leblanc

Publisher: Courier Corporation

ISBN: 0486154823

Category: Mathematics

Page: 160

View: 2294

This treatment addresses a decades-old dispute among probability theorists, asserting that both statistical and inductive probabilities may be treated as sentence-theoretic measurements, and that the latter qualify as estimates of the former. 1962 edition.

Brady Bonds and Default Probabilities

Author: Ivailo Izvorski

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 145189130X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 24

View: 5308

This paper computes the default probabilities implicit in the prices of Brady bonds of seven developing countries and examines the factors that determine the high cross-correlation of the probability paths. The term structure of U.S. interest rates and the ratio of long-term foreign debt to GDP, together with a developing market index, explain more than 75 percent of the cross-sectional distribution of the default probabilities. The paper also demonstrates a new way to extract sovereign riskiness, implicit in traded bond prices. This allows the above results to be interpreted as explaining the cross-sectional distribution of sovereign riskiness as well.

Ruin Probabilities

Author: S?ren Asmussen,Hansj”rg Albrecher

Publisher: World Scientific

ISBN: 9814282529

Category: Mathematics

Page: 602

View: 9043

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cram‚r?Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber?Shiu functions and dependence.

Probabilities, Causes and Propensities in Physics

Author: Mauricio Suárez

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9781402099045

Category: Science

Page: 266

View: 9952

This volume defends a novel approach to the philosophy of physics: it is the first book devoted to a comparative study of probability, causality, and propensity, and their various interrelations, within the context of contemporary physics -- particularly quantum and statistical physics. The philosophical debates and distinctions are firmly grounded upon examples from actual physics, thus exemplifying a robustly empiricist approach. The essays, by both prominent scholars in the field and promising young researchers, constitute a pioneer effort in bringing out the connections between probabilistic, causal and dispositional aspects of the quantum domain. The book will appeal to specialists in philosophy and foundations of physics, philosophy of science in general, metaphysics, ontology of physics theories, and philosophy of probability.