In Defence of Objective Bayesianism

Author: Jon Williamson

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199228000

Category: Computers

Page: 185

View: 8381

Objective Bayesianism is a methodological theory that is currently applied in statistics, philosophy, artificial intelligence, physics and other sciences. This book develops the formal and philosophical foundations of the theory, at a level accessible to a graduate student with some familiarity with mathematical notation.

Bayesian Nets and Causality: Philosophical and Computational Foundations

Author: Jon Williamson

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 019853079X

Category: Computers

Page: 239

View: 4149

Bayesian nets are used in artificial intelligence as a calculus for causal reasoning, enabling machines to make predictions, perform diagnoses, take decisions and even to discover causal relationships. This book brings together how to automate reasoning in artificial intelligence, and the nature of causality and probability in philosophy.

Lectures on Inductive Logic

Author: Jon Williamson,Professor of Reasoning Inference and Scientific Method Jon Williamson

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199666474


Page: 220

View: 8808

Logic is a field studied mainly by researchers and students of philosophy, mathematics and computing. Inductive logic seeks to determine the extent to which the premisses of an argument entail its conclusion, aiming to provide a theory of how one should reason in the face of uncertainty. It has applications to decision making and artificial intelligence, as well as how scientists should reason when not in possession of the full facts. In this book, Jon Williamson embarks on a quest to find a general, reasonable, applicable inductive logic (GRAIL), all the while examining why pioneers such as Ludwig Wittgenstein and Rudolf Carnap did not entirely succeed in this task. Along the way he presents a general framework for the field, and reaches a new inductive logic, which builds upon recent developments in Bayesian epistemology (a theory about how strongly one should believe the various propositions that one can express). The book explores this logic in detail, discusses some key criticisms, and considers how it might be justified. Is this truly the GRAIL? Although the book presents new research, this material is well suited to being delivered as a series of lectures to students of philosophy, mathematics, or computing and doubles as an introduction to the field of inductive logic

Critical Rationalism

A Restatement and Defence

Author: David W. Miller

Publisher: Open Court Publishing Company

ISBN: 9780812691986

Category: Philosophy

Page: 264

View: 7917

6.5 Pure Bayesianism -- Technical Note -- 7. On the Maximization of Expected Futility -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 The Requirement of Total Evidence -- 7.3 Good's Answer -- 7.4 Acquiring a Necktie -- 7.5 Criticism of Good's Answer -- 7.6 Probability Kinematics -- 7.7 Acquiring a Necktie (continued) -- 7.8 Conclusion -- 8. Diverging Distributions -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 The Logistic Function -- 8.3 The Binomial Distribution -- 8.4 A Chaotic Distribution -- 8.5 Another Chaotic Distribution -- 8.6 Scientific Objectivity -- 8.7 Approximate Distributions -- 8.8 Conclusion -- Technical Note

Bayesian Epistemology

Author: Luc Bovens,Stephan Hartmann

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

ISBN: 0199269750

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 159

View: 4577

Probabilistic models have much to offer to philosophy. We continually receive information from many sources - our senses, witnesses, scientific instruments - and assess whether to believe it. The authors provide a systematic Bayesian account of these features of reasoning.

Bayesian Statistics 9

Author: José M. Bernardo,M. J. Bayarri,James O. Berger,A. P. Dawid,David Heckerman

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199694583

Category: Mathematics

Page: 706

View: 1621

Bayesian statistics is a dynamic and fast-growing area of statistical research and the Valencia International Meetings provide the main forum for discussion. These resulting proceedings form an up-to-date collection of research.

Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370

Author: Sam Davey,Neil Gordon,Ian Holland,Mark Rutten,Jason Williams

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9811003793

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 114

View: 2364

This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean. The book describes particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability distribution.

The Science of Conjecture

Evidence and Probability Before Pascal

Author: James Franklin

Publisher: JHU Press

ISBN: 1421418800

Category: History

Page: 520

View: 3467

How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk. "A remarkable book. Mr. Franklin writes clearly and exhibits a wry wit. But he also ranges knowledgeably across many disciplines and over many centuries."— Wall Street Journal " The Science of Conjecture opens an old chest of human attempts to draw order from havoc and wipes clean the rust from some cast-off classical tools that can now be reused to help build a framework for the unpredictable future."— Science "Franklin's style is clear and fluent, with an occasional sly Gibbonian aside to make the reader chuckle."— New Criterion James Franklin is a professor in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New South Wales.

Probabilistic Logics and Probabilistic Networks

Author: Rolf Haenni,Jan-Willem Romeijn,Gregory Wheeler,Jon Williamson

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789400700086

Category: Science

Page: 155

View: 6170

While probabilistic logics in principle might be applied to solve a range of problems, in practice they are rarely applied - perhaps because they seem disparate, complicated, and computationally intractable. This programmatic book argues that several approaches to probabilistic logic fit into a simple unifying framework in which logically complex evidence is used to associate probability intervals or probabilities with sentences. Specifically, Part I shows that there is a natural way to present a question posed in probabilistic logic, and that various inferential procedures provide semantics for that question, while Part II shows that there is the potential to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework. The book is intended for researchers in philosophy, logic, computer science and statistics. A familiarity with mathematical concepts and notation is presumed, but no advanced knowledge of logic or probability theory is required.

Philosophical Lectures on Probability

collected, edited, and annotated by Alberto Mura

Author: Bruno de Finetti

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1402082010

Category: Science

Page: 216

View: 3038

Bruno de Finetti (1906–1985) is the founder of the subjective interpretation of probability, together with the British philosopher Frank Plumpton Ramsey. His related notion of “exchangeability” revolutionized the statistical methodology. This book (based on a course held in 1979) explains in a language accessible also to non-mathematicians the fundamental tenets and implications of subjectivism, according to which the probability of any well specified fact F refers to the degree of belief actually held by someone, on the ground of her whole knowledge, on the truth of the assertion that F obtains.

The AI Delusion

Author: Gary Smith

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0192557807

Category: Computers

Page: 256

View: 4246

We live in an incredible period in history. The Computer Revolution may be even more life-changing than the Industrial Revolution. We can do things with computers that could never be done before, and computers can do things for us that could never be done before. But our love of computers should not cloud our thinking about their limitations. We are told that computers are smarter than humans and that data mining can identify previously unknown truths, or make discoveries that will revolutionize our lives. Our lives may well be changed, but not necessarily for the better. Computers are very good at discovering patterns, but are useless in judging whether the unearthed patterns are sensible because computers do not think the way humans think. We fear that super-intelligent machines will decide to protect themselves by enslaving or eliminating humans. But the real danger is not that computers are smarter than us, but that we think computers are smarter than us and, so, trust computers to make important decisions for us. The AI Delusion explains why we should not be intimidated into thinking that computers are infallible, that data-mining is knowledge discovery, and that black boxes should be trusted.

The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information

Author: Luciano Floridi

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1317633490

Category: Philosophy

Page: 446

View: 453

Information and communication technology occupies a central place in the modern world, with society becoming increasingly dependent on it every day. It is therefore unsurprising that it has become a growing subject area in contemporary philosophy, which relies heavily on informational concepts. The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information is an outstanding reference source to the key topics and debates in this exciting subject and is the first collection of its kind. Comprising over thirty chapters by a team of international contributors the Handbook is divided into four parts: basic ideas quantitative and formal aspects natural and physical aspects human and semantic aspects. Within these sections central issues are examined, including probability, the logic of information, informational metaphysics, the philosophy of data and evidence, and the epistemic value of information. The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information is essential reading for students and researchers in philosophy, computer science and communication studies.

Explanation, Prediction, and Confirmation

Author: Dennis Dieks,Wenceslao J. Gonzalez,Stephan Hartmann,Thomas Uebel,Marcel Weber

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789400711808

Category: Science

Page: 540

View: 9330

This volume, the second in the Springer series Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective, contains selected papers from the workshops organised by the ESF Research Networking Programme PSE (The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective) in 2009. Five general topics are addressed: 1. Formal Methods in the Philosophy of Science; 2. Philosophy of the Natural and Life Sciences; 3. Philosophy of the Cultural and Social Sciences; 4. Philosophy of the Physical Sciences; 5. History of the Philosophy of Science. This volume is accordingly divided in five sections, each section containing papers coming from the meetings focussing on one of these five themes. However, these sections are not completely independent and detached from each other. For example, an important connecting thread running through a substantial number of papers in this volume is the concept of probability: probability plays a central role in present-day discussions in formal epistemology, in the philosophy of the physical sciences, and in general methodological debates---it is central in discussions concerning explanation, prediction and confirmation. The volume thus also attempts to represent the intellectual exchange between the various fields in the philosophy of science that was central in the ESF workshops.

The Age of Em

Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth

Author: Robin Hanson

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0191069663

Category: Computers

Page: 368

View: 553

Robots may one day rule the world, but what is a robot-ruled Earth like? Many think the first truly smart robots will be brain emulations or ems. Scan a human brain, then run a model with the same connections on a fast computer, and you have a robot brain, but recognizably human. Train an em to do some job and copy it a million times: an army of workers is at your disposal. When they can be made cheaply, within perhaps a century, ems will displace humans in most jobs. In this new economic era, the world economy may double in size every few weeks. Some say we can't know the future, especially following such a disruptive new technology, but Professor Robin Hanson sets out to prove them wrong. Applying decades of expertise in physics, computer science, and economics, he uses standard theories to paint a detailed picture of a world dominated by ems. While human lives don't change greatly in the em era, em lives are as different from ours as our lives are from those of our farmer and forager ancestors. Ems make us question common assumptions of moral progress, because they reject many of the values we hold dear. Read about em mind speeds, body sizes, job training and career paths, energy use and cooling infrastructure, virtual reality, aging and retirement, death and immortality, security, wealth inequality, religion, teleportation, identity, cities, politics, law, war, status, friendship and love. This book shows you just how strange your descendants may be, though ems are no stranger than we would appear to our ancestors. To most ems, it seems good to be an em.

Physical Computation

A Mechanistic Account

Author: Gualtiero Piccinini

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

ISBN: 0199658854

Category: Computer science

Page: 313

View: 2879

Computation permeates our world, but a satisfactory philosophical theory of what it is has been lacking. Gualtiero Piccinini presents a mechanistic account of what makes a physical system a computing system. He argues that computation does not entail representation or information-processing, although information-processing entails computation.

Causality and Causal Modelling in the Social Sciences

Measuring Variations

Author: Federica Russo

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1402088175

Category: Social Science

Page: 236

View: 7269

This investigation into causal modelling presents the rationale of causality, i.e. the notion that guides causal reasoning in causal modelling. It is argued that causal models are regimented by a rationale of variation, nor of regularity neither invariance, thus breaking down the dominant Human paradigm. The notion of variation is shown to be embedded in the scheme of reasoning behind various causal models. It is also shown to be latent – yet fundamental – in many philosophical accounts. Moreover, it has significant consequences for methodological issues: the warranty of the causal interpretation of causal models, the levels of causation, the characterisation of mechanisms, and the interpretation of probability. This book offers a novel philosophical and methodological approach to causal reasoning in causal modelling and provides the reader with the tools to be up to date about various issues causality rises in social science.

Causality in the Sciences

Author: Phyllis McKay Illari,Federica Russo,Jon Williamson

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199574138

Category: Mathematics

Page: 938

View: 3759

Why do ideas of how mechanisms relate to causality and probability differ so much across the sciences? Can progress in understanding the tools of causal inference in some sciences lead to progress in others? This book tackles these questions and others concerning the use of causality in the sciences.

Moral Machines

Teaching Robots Right from Wrong

Author: Wendell Wallach,Colin Allen

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199737975

Category: Computers

Page: 288

View: 4264

"Moral Machines is a fine introduction to the emerging field of robot ethics. There is much here that will interest ethicists, philosophers, cognitive scientists, and roboticists." ---Peter Danielson, Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews --

Computability and Randomness

Author: André Nies

Publisher: OUP Oxford

ISBN: 0191627887

Category: Philosophy

Page: 456

View: 6087

The interplay between computability and randomness has been an active area of research in recent years, reflected by ample funding in the USA, numerous workshops, and publications on the subject. The complexity and the randomness aspect of a set of natural numbers are closely related. Traditionally, computability theory is concerned with the complexity aspect. However, computability theoretic tools can also be used to introduce mathematical counterparts for the intuitive notion of randomness of a set. Recent research shows that, conversely, concepts and methods originating from randomness enrich computability theory. The book covers topics such as lowness and highness properties, Kolmogorov complexity, betting strategies and higher computability. Both the basics and recent research results are desribed, providing a very readable introduction to the exciting interface of computability and randomness for graduates and researchers in computability theory, theoretical computer science, and measure theory.

Bayesian Rationality

The Probabilistic Approach to Human Reasoning

Author: Mike Oaksford,Nick Chater

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780198524496

Category: Philosophy

Page: 330

View: 3310

For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.