Hurricane Climatology

A Modern Statistical Guide Using R

Author: James B. Elsner,Thomas H. Jagger

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199827648

Category: Science

Page: 390

View: 5169

Hurricanes are nature's most destructive storms and they are becoming more powerful as the globe warms. Hurricane Climatology explains how to analyze and model hurricane data to better understand and predict present and future hurricane activity. It uses the open-source and now widely used R software for statistical computing to create a tutorial-style manual for independent study, review, and reference. The text is written around the code that when copied will reproduce the graphs, tables, and maps. The approach is different from other books that use R. It focuses on a single topic and explains how to make use of R to better understand the topic. The book is organized into two parts, the first of which provides material on software, statistics, and data. The second part presents methods and models used in hurricane climate research.

Climate Time Series Analysis

Classical Statistical and Bootstrap Methods

Author: Manfred Mudelsee

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789048194827

Category: Science

Page: 474

View: 8950

Climate is a paradigm of a complex system. Analysing climate data is an exciting challenge, which is increased by non-normal distributional shape, serial dependence, uneven spacing and timescale uncertainties. This book presents bootstrap resampling as a computing-intensive method able to meet the challenge. It shows the bootstrap to perform reliably in the most important statistical estimation techniques: regression, spectral analysis, extreme values and correlation. This book is written for climatologists and applied statisticians. It explains step by step the bootstrap algorithms (including novel adaptions) and methods for confidence interval construction. It tests the accuracy of the algorithms by means of Monte Carlo experiments. It analyses a large array of climate time series, giving a detailed account on the data and the associated climatological questions. This makes the book self-contained for graduate students and researchers.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks, Second Edition

Author: Norman Fenton,Martin Neil

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1351978969

Category: Mathematics

Page: 704

View: 8095

Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.

Multivariate and 2D Extensions of Singular Spectrum Analysis with the Rssa Package

Author: Nina Golyandina,Anton Korobeynikov,Alex Shlemov,Konstantin Usevich

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

ISBN: 9781500874339

Category:

Page: 86

View: 9732

Implementation of multivariate and 2D extensions of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) by means of the R-package Rssa is considered. The extensions include MSSA for simultaneous analysis and forecasting of several time series and 2D-SSA for analysis of digital images. A new extension of 2D-SSA analysis called Shaped 2D-SSA is introduced for analysis of images of arbitrary shape, not necessary rectangular. It is shown that implementation of Shaped 2D-SSA can serve as a base for implementation of MSSA and other generalizations. Efficient implementation of operations with Hankel and Hankel-block-Hankel matrices through the fast Fourier transform is suggested. Examples with code fragments in R, which explain the methodology and demonstrate the proper use of Rssa, are presented.

Continents and Supercontinents

Author: John J. W. Rogers,M. Santosh

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

ISBN: 0195165896

Category: Science

Page: 289

View: 5423

Surveys the origin of continents, and the accretion and breakup of supercontinents through earth history. This book also shows how these processes affected the composition of seawater, climate, and the evolution of life.

Extreme Weather and Climate

Author: C. Donald Ahrens,Perry Samson

Publisher: Cengage Learning

ISBN: 0495118575

Category: Science

Page: 528

View: 6583

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATE is a unique textbook solution for the fast-growing market of non-majors science courses focused on extreme weather. With strong foundational coverage of the science of meteorology, EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATE introduces the causes and impacts of extreme weather events and conditions. Students learn the science of meteorology in context of important and often familiar weather events such as Hurricane Katrina and they’ll explore how forecast changes in climate may influence frequency and/or intensity of future extreme weather events. An exciting array of photos and illustrations brings the intensity of weather and its sometimes devastating impact to every chapter. Written by a respected and unique author team, this book blends coverage found in Don Ahrens market-leading texts with insights and technology support contributed by co-author Perry Samson. Professor Samson has developed an Extreme Weather course at the University of Michigan that is the fastest-growing science course at the university. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.

Introduction to Modern Climate Change

Author: Andrew Dessler

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1316419126

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 5090

This is an invaluable textbook for any introductory survey course on the science and policy of climate change, for both non-science majors and introductory science students. The second edition has been thoroughly updated to reflect the most recent science from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, and many illustrations include new data. The new edition also reflects advances in the political debate over climate change. Unique amongst textbooks on climate change, it combines an introduction to the science with an introduction to economic and policy issues, and is tightly focused on anthropogenic climate change. It contains the necessary quantitative depth for students to properly understand the science of climate change. It supports students in using algebra to understand simple equations and to solve end-of-chapter problems. Supplementary online resources include a complete set of PowerPoint figures for instructors, solutions to exercises, videos of the author's lectures, and additional computer exercises.

Occupational Outlook Handbook, 1994-1995

Author: DIANE Publishing Company

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

ISBN: 9780788107948

Category:

Page: 350

View: 2915

A nationally recognized, best-selling reference work. An easy-to-use, comprehensive "encyclopedia" of today's occupations & tomorrow's hiring trends. Describes in detail some 250 occupations -- covering about 104 million jobs, or 85% of all jobs in the U.S. Each description discuses the nature of the work; working conditions; employment; training, other qualifications, & advancement; job outlook; earnings; related occupations; & sources of additional information. Revised every 2 years.

Analysis of Climate Variability

Applications of Statistical Techniques

Author: Hans v. Storch,Antonio Navarra

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 3662031671

Category: Science

Page: 334

View: 3992

EUROPEAN SCHOOl OF CLiMATOlOGY AND NATURAL HAZARDS The training of scientific and technical personnel and the development of highly qualified scientists are, and have always been, among the important concerns of the European Commission. Advanced training is an important requirement for the implementation of a common EU policy in science and technology. The European School of Climatology and Natural Hazards was started as apart of the training and education activities of the European Programme on Climatology and Natural Hazards (EPOCH), and is continued under the subsequent research programme (ENVIRONMENT 1990-1994). The school consists of annual courses on specialised subjects within re search in climatology and natural hazards, and is open to graduating, grad uate and post graduate students in these fields. Each of the courses is organized in cooperation with a European Institu tion involved in the current research programme, and is aimed at giving to the students formal lectures and participation in informal discussions with leading researchers. The present volume is based on the lectures given at the course held on the island of Elba from the 30th October to the 6th of November 1993 on Statistical Analysis of Climate Variability. It features selected and extended presentations, and represents an important contribution to advanced studies in climate statistical analysis, supplementing more traditional texts. I trust that all those involved in research related to climate change and climate variability will appreciate this work and will benefit from the com prehensive and state-of-the-art information it provides.

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 0309380979

Category: Science

Page: 186

View: 6158

As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research

Author: Douglas Maraun,Martin Widmann

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107066050

Category: Mathematics

Page: 388

View: 1300

A comprehensive and practical guide, providing technical background and user context for researchers, graduate students, practitioners and decision makers. This book presents the main approaches and describes their underlying assumptions, skill and limitations. Guidelines for the application of downscaling and the use of downscaled information in practice complete the volume.

The Politically Incorrect Guide to Science

Author: Tom Bethell

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

ISBN: 1596986301

Category: Science

Page: 270

View: 4581

"If the globe is warming, is mankind responsible, or is the sun?" Such a statement does not appear out of place in Bethell's entertaining account of how modern science is politically motivated and in desperate need of oversight. Bethell writes in a compulsively readable style, and although he provides legitimate insight into the potential benefits of nuclear power and hormesis, some readers will be turned off when he attempts to disprove global warming and especially evolution. Throughout the book, Bethell makes questionable claims about subjects as varied as AIDS ("careful U.S. studies had already shown that at least a thousand sexual contacts are needed to achieve heterosexual transmission of the virus") and extinction ("It is not possible definitely to attribute any given extinction to human activity"), and backs up his arguments with references to the music magazine SPIN and thriller-writer Michael Crichton. Ironically, Bethell ends up proving his own premise by producing a highly politicized account of how liberal intellectuals and unchecked government agencies have created a "white-coated priesthood" whose lust for grant money has driven them to produce fearsome (but in Bethell's view, false) tales of ozone destruction and AIDS pandemics. In the end, this book is unlikely to sway readers who aren't already in Bethell's ideological camp, as any points worthy of discussion get lost in the glut of unsourced claims that populate this latest installment of "The Politically Incorrect Guide" series.

A Vast Machine

Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming

Author: Paul N. Edwards

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 0262290715

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 546

View: 3805

Global warming skeptics often fall back on the argument that the scientific case for global warming is all model predictions, nothing but simulation; they warn us that we need to wait for real data, "sound science." In A Vast Machine Paul Edwards has news for these skeptics: without models, there are no data. Today, no collection of signals or observations -- even from satellites, which can "see" the whole planet with a single instrument -- becomes global in time and space without passing through a series of data models. Everything we know about the world's climate we know through models. Edwards offers an engaging and innovative history of how scientists learned to understand the atmosphere -- to measure it, trace its past, and model its future.

Forecast Verification

A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Author: Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119961076

Category: Science

Page: 288

View: 389

Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

Author: Liza N. Burby

Publisher: The Rosen Publishing Group

ISBN: 9780823952908

Category: Juvenile Nonfiction

Page: 24

View: 5915

An introduction to tropical storms and hurricanes with information on how they begin, when and where they occur, the damage they can do, and some of the worst storms of this century.

Principles of Planetary Climate

Author: Raymond T. Pierrehumbert

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139495062

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 6610

This book introduces the reader to all the basic physical building blocks of climate needed to understand the present and past climate of Earth, the climates of Solar System planets, and the climates of extrasolar planets. These building blocks include thermodynamics, infrared radiative transfer, scattering, surface heat transfer and various processes governing the evolution of atmospheric composition. Nearly four hundred problems are supplied to help consolidate the reader's understanding, and to lead the reader towards original research on planetary climate. This textbook is invaluable for advanced undergraduate or beginning graduate students in atmospheric science, Earth and planetary science, astrobiology, and physics. It also provides a superb reference text for researchers in these subjects, and is very suitable for academic researchers trained in physics or chemistry who wish to rapidly gain enough background to participate in the excitement of the new research opportunities opening in planetary climate.

Practical Meteorology

An Algebra-based Survey of Atmospheric Science

Author: Roland Stull

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9780888652836

Category: Science

Page: 942

View: 5990

A quantitative introduction to atmospheric science for students and professionals who want to understand and apply basic meteorological concepts but who are not ready for calculus.

Hurricanes

their nature and impacts on society

Author: Roger A. Pielke

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780471973546

Category: Nature

Page: 279

View: 5615

Losses to hurricanes in the 1990s total more than those incurred in the 1970s and 1980s combined, even after adjusting for inflation. This has led many to mistakenly conclude that severe hurricanes are becoming more frequent. In fact, according to recent research, the past few decades have seen a decrease in the frequency of severe storms and 1991 to 1994 was the quietest in at least 50 years. It does mean, however, that the world today is more vulnerable to hurricane impacts than it has ever been, which represents a serious policy problem. This book defines and assesses the hurricane problem, focusing primarily on the United States, in order to lay a foundation for action. The concept of vulnerability is used to integrate the societal and physical aspects of hurricane impacts. The book is unique in that it seeks to address both the scientific and societal aspects of hurricanes. While it focuses on the United States, it is intended to illustrate weather related impacts assessment that could be applied in other areas, and for phenomena other than hurricanes. More broadly, this book seeks to illustrate the beneficial uses (as well as limitations) of hurricane science to society. Explicit consideration of the relationship between science and society is much needed in an era when scientific research is under public and political pressure to demonstrate a better connection with societal needs.

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Author: Daniel S. Wilks

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 0123850231

Category: Science

Page: 704

View: 6393

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. Accessible presentation and explanation of techniques for atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing and forecasting Many worked examples End-of-chapter exercises, with answers provided