Forecast Verification

A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Author: Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119961076

Category: Science

Page: 288

View: 5504

Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Parameterization Schemes

Keys to Understanding Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Author: David J. Stensrud

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107469651

Category: Science

Page: 478

View: 4577

Numerical weather prediction models play an increasingly important role in meteorology, both in short- and medium-range forecasting and global climate change studies. The most important components of any numerical weather prediction model are the subgrid-scale parameterization schemes, and the analysis and understanding of these schemes is a key aspect of numerical weather prediction. This book provides in-depth explorations of the most commonly used types of parameterization schemes that influence both short-range weather forecasts and global climate models. Several parameterizations are summarised and compared, followed by a discussion of their limitations. Review questions at the end of each chapter enable readers to monitor their understanding of the topics covered, and solutions are available to instructors at www.cambridge.org/9780521865401. This will be an essential reference for academic researchers, meteorologists, weather forecasters, and graduate students interested in numerical weather prediction and its use in weather forecasting.

Fundamentals of Environmental and Toxicological Chemistry

Sustainable Science, Fourth Edition

Author: Stanley E. Manahan

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1466553162

Category: Science

Page: 614

View: 3286

Fundamentals of Environmental and Toxicological Chemistry: Sustainable Science, Fourth Edition covers university-level environmental chemistry, with toxicological chemistry integrated throughout the book. This new edition of a bestseller provides an updated text with an increased emphasis on sustainability and green chemistry. It is organized based on the five spheres of Earth’s environment: (1) the hydrosphere (water), (2) the atmosphere (air), (3) the geosphere (solid Earth), (4) the biosphere (life), and (5) the anthrosphere (the part of the environment made and used by humans). The first chapter defines environmental chemistry and each of the five environmental spheres. The second chapter presents the basics of toxicological chemistry and its relationship to environmental chemistry. Subsequent chapters are grouped by sphere, beginning with the hydrosphere and its environmental chemistry, water pollution, sustainability, and water as nature’s most renewable resource. Chapters then describe the atmosphere, its structure and importance for protecting life on Earth, air pollutants, and the sustainability of atmospheric quality. The author explains the nature of the geosphere and discusses soil for growing food as well as geosphere sustainability. He also describes the biosphere and its sustainability. The final sphere described is the anthrosphere. The text explains human influence on the environment, including climate, pollution in and by the anthrosphere, and means of sustaining this sphere. It also discusses renewable, nonpolluting energy and introduces workplace monitoring. For readers needing additional basic chemistry background, the book includes two chapters on general chemistry and organic chemistry. This updated edition includes three new chapters, new examples and figures, and many new homework problems.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Author: Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 012812248X

Category: Science

Page: 362

View: 409

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Phenological Research

Methods for Environmental and Climate Change Analysis

Author: Irene L. Hudson,Marie R. Keatley

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789048133352

Category: Science

Page: 521

View: 2231

As climate change continues to dominate the international environmental agenda, phenology – the study of the timing of recurring biological events – has received increasing research attention, leading to an emerging consensus that phenology can be viewed as an ‘early warning system’ for climate change impact. A multidisciplinary science involving many branches of ecology, geography and remote sensing, phenology to date has lacked a coherent methodological text. This new synthesis, including contributions from many of the world’s leading phenologists, therefore fills a critical gap in the current biological literature. Providing critiques of current methods, as well as detailing novel and emerging methodologies, the book, with its extensive suite of references, provides readers with an understanding of both the theoretical basis and the potential applications required to adopt and adapt new analytical and design methods. An invaluable source book for researchers and students in ecology and climate change science, the book also provides a useful reference for practitioners in a range of sectors, including human health, fisheries, forestry, agriculture and natural resource management.

An Introduction to Environmental Chemistry

Author: Julian E. Andrews,Peter Brimblecombe,Tim D. Jickells,Peter S. Liss,Brian Reid

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118685474

Category: Science

Page: 320

View: 3843

This introductory text explains the fundamentals of the chemistry of the natural environment and the effects of mankind's activities on the earth's chemical systems. Retains an emphasis on describing how natural geochemical processes operate over a variety of scales in time and space, and how the effects of human perturbation can be measured. Topics range from familiar global issues such as atmospheric pollution and its effect on global warming and ozone destruction, to microbiological processes that cause pollution of drinking water deltas. Contains sections and information boxes that explain the basic chemistry underpinning the subject covered. Each chapter contains a list of further reading on the subject area. Updated case studies. No prior chemistry knowledge required. Suitable for introductory level courses.

Warnings

The True Story of how Science Tamed the Weather

Author: Michael Ray Smith

Publisher: Greenleaf Book Group

ISBN: 1608320340

Category: Nature

Page: 286

View: 3447

From the heart of tornado alley, Smith takes us into the eye of America's most devastating storms and behind the scenes of some of the world's most renowned scientific institutions to uncover the relationship between mankind and the weather.

Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate

Author: Murry L. Salby

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107049059

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 3609

Murry Salby's new book provides an integrated treatment of the processes controlling the Earth-atmosphere system, developed from first principles through a balance of theory and applications. This book builds on Salby's previous book, Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics. The scope has been expanded into climate, with the presentation streamlined for undergraduates in science, mathematics and engineering. Advanced material, suitable for graduate students and as a resource for researchers, has been retained but distinguished from the basic development. The book provides a conceptual yet quantitative understanding of the controlling influences, integrated through theory and major applications. It leads readers through a methodical development of the diverse physical processes that shape weather, global energetics and climate. End-of-chapter problems of varying difficulty develop student knowledge and its quantitative application, supported by answers and detailed solutions online for instructors.

Mesoscale Meteorology in Midlatitudes

Author: Paul Markowski,Yvette Richardson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119966671

Category: Science

Page: 430

View: 8686

Mesoscale Meteorology in Mid-Latitudes presents the dynamics of mesoscale meteorological phenomena in a highly accessible, student-friendly manner. The book's clear mathematical treatments are complemented by high-quality photographs and illustrations. Comprehensive coverage of subjects including boundary layer mesoscale phenomena, orographic phenomena and deep convection is brought together with the latest developments in the field to provide an invaluable resource for mesoscale meteorology students. Mesoscale Meteorology in Mid-Latitudes functions as a comprehensive, easy-to-use undergraduate textbook while also providing a useful reference for graduate students, research scientists and weather industry professionals. Illustrated in full colour throughout Covers the latest developments and research in the field Comprehensive coverage of deep convection and its initiation Uses real life examples of phenomena taken from broad geographical areas to demonstrate the practical aspects of the science

Managing Country Risk

A Practitioner’s Guide to Effective Cross-Border Risk Analysis

Author: Daniel Wagner

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1466558954

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 308

View: 3756

What would you do if a law that enabled your investment to operate successfully abroad suddenly changed, and your business could no longer operate profitably there? Imagine exporting goods to a government buyer only to discover after the fact that your home country, or the United Nations, has just imposed an embargo on that country. Managing Country Risk: A Practitioner’s Guide to Effective Cross-Border Risk Analysis explains how to identify and manage the many risks associated with conducting business abroad. Daniel Wagner, an industry expert with decades of battle-tested experience, provides the real-world insight needed to think outside the box and anticipate the impact of change on your business operations. Using case studies and practical examples, it supplies essential information on country risk management and explains how these concepts apply to every day operational examples. Considering the impact of perception on investment decisions, it demonstrates how to put a country risk assessment into practice and explains how to create a framework, select the right tools, and map out a country risk analysis methodology. Appropriate for a wide audience—from individual entrepreneurs and small exporters to multinational corporations—the book provides a solid foundation in the basics of country risk analysis. It facilitates an understanding of the full range of cross-border risks and explains how to manage them. The strategies, concepts, and tools outlined in the book provide you with the understanding needed to help your organization make more-informed decisions about how it does business abroad. Practical examples and case studies provide the real-world insight needed to add value to the risk management processes in your organization and enhance your company’s ability to make a profit.

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Author: Daniel S. Wilks

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 0123850223

Category: Mathematics

Page: 676

View: 429

This revised and expanded text explains the latest statistical methods that are being used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. It features numerous worked examples, illustrations, equations, and exercises with separate solutions. The book will help advanced students and professionals understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, and make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines.

Da qi ke xue

Scientia atmospherica Sinica

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Atmosphere

Page: N.A

View: 2740


Atmospheric Radar

Application and Science of MST Radars in the Earth's Mesosphere, Stratosphere, Troposphere, and Weakly Ionized Regions

Author: Wayne K. Hocking,Jürgen Röttger,Robert D. Palmer,Toru Sato,Phillip B. Chilson

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107147468

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 832

View: 2476

The first book to bring together the theory, design and applications of atmospheric radar systems.

Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography

Author: Richard E. Thomson,William J. Emery

Publisher: Newnes

ISBN: 0123877830

Category: Science

Page: 728

View: 848

Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography, Third Edition is a practical reference to established and modern data analysis techniques in earth and ocean sciences. Its five major sections address data acquisition and recording, data processing and presentation, statistical methods and error handling, analysis of spatial data fields, and time series analysis methods. The revised Third Edition updates the instrumentation used to collect and analyze physical oceanic data and adds new techniques including Kalman Filtering. Additionally, the sections covering spectral, wavelet, and harmonic analysis techniques are completely revised since these techniques have attracted significant attention over the past decade as more accurate and efficient data gathering and analysis methods. Completely updated and revised to reflect new filtering techniques and major updating of the instrumentation used to collect and analyze data Co-authored by scientists from academe and industry, both of whom have more than 30 years of experience in oceanographic research and field work Significant revision of sections covering spectral, wavelet, and harmonic analysis techniques Examples address typical data analysis problems yet provide the reader with formulaic “recipes for working with their own data Significant expansion to 350 figures, illustrations, diagrams and photos

Fire Phenomena and the Earth System

An Interdisciplinary Guide to Fire Science

Author: Claire M. Belcher

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118529561

Category: Science

Page: 352

View: 8273

Fire plays a key role in Earth system processes. Wildfires influence the carbon cycle and the nutrient balance of our planet, and may even play a role in regulating the oxygen content of our atmosphere. The evolutionary history of plants has been intimately tied to fire and this in part explains the distribution of our ecosystems and their ability to withstand the effects of natural fires today. Fire Phenomena and the Earth System brings together the various subdisciplines within fire science to provide a synthesis of our understanding of the role of wildfire in the Earth system. The book shows how knowledge of fire phenomena and the nature of combustion of natural fuels can be used to understand modern wildfires, interpret fire events in the geological record and to understand the role of fire in a variety of Earth system processes. By bringing together chapters written by leading international researchers from a range of geological, environmental, chemical and engineering disciplines, the book will stimulate the exchange of ideas and knowledge across these subject areas. Fire Phenomena and the Earth System provides a truly interdisciplinary guide that can inform us about Earth’s past, present and beyond. Readership: Advanced students and researchers across a wide range of earth, environmental and life sciences, including biogeochemistry, paleoclimatology, atmospheric science, palaeontology and paleoecology, combustion science, ecology and forestry.

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

50th Anniversary Edition

Author: Thomas S. Kuhn

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 0226458148

Category: Science

Page: 264

View: 9646

A good book may have the power to change the way we see the world, but a great book actually becomes part of our daily consciousness, pervading our thinking to the point that we take it for granted, and we forget how provocative and challenging its ideas once were—and still are. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions is that kind of book. When it was first published in 1962, it was a landmark event in the history and philosophy of science. Fifty years later, it still has many lessons to teach. With The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Kuhn challenged long-standing linear notions of scientific progress, arguing that transformative ideas don’t arise from the day-to-day, gradual process of experimentation and data accumulation but that the revolutions in science, those breakthrough moments that disrupt accepted thinking and offer unanticipated ideas, occur outside of “normal science,” as he called it. Though Kuhn was writing when physics ruled the sciences, his ideas on how scientific revolutions bring order to the anomalies that amass over time in research experiments are still instructive in our biotech age. This new edition of Kuhn’s essential work in the history of science includes an insightful introduction by Ian Hacking, which clarifies terms popularized by Kuhn, including paradigm and incommensurability, and applies Kuhn’s ideas to the science of today. Usefully keyed to the separate sections of the book, Hacking’s introduction provides important background information as well as a contemporary context. Newly designed, with an expanded index, this edition will be eagerly welcomed by the next generation of readers seeking to understand the history of our perspectives on science.

Hydroclimatology

Perspectives and Applications

Author: Marlyn L. Shelton

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 0521848881

Category: Science

Page: 426

View: 2341

Hydroclimatology provides a systematic structure for analysing how the climate system causes time and space variations (both global and local) in the hydrologic cycle. Changes in the relationship between the climate system and the hydrologic cycle underlie floods, drought and possible future influences of global warming on water resources. Land-based data, satellite data, and computer models contribute to our understanding of the complex time and space variations of physical processes shared by the climate system and the hydrologic cycle. Blending key information from the fields of climatology and hydrology - which are not often found in a single volume - this is an ideal textbook for students in atmospheric science, hydrology, Earth and environmental science, geography, and environmental engineering. It is also a useful reference for academic researchers in these fields.

Principles of Business Forecasting

Author: Keith Ord,Robert Fildes

Publisher: Cengage Learning

ISBN: 0324311273

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 528

View: 3626

Ord/Fildes PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING, 1E serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors’ motivation for writing this book is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas. Ord and Fildes have designed PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING for users who have taken a first course in applied statistics or who have an equivalent background. This book introduces both standard and advanced forecasting methods and their underlying models, and also includes general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice. A key strength of the book is its emphasis on real data sets, taken from government and business sources and used in each chapter’s examples. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms and the companion website provides easy-to-use Excel macros to support the basic methods. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA) and then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. Finally, they examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.