Author: Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter

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### Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models

The past decade has seen powerful new computational tools for modeling which combine a Bayesian approach with recent Monte simulation techniques based on Markov chains. This book is the first to offer a systematic presentation of the Bayesian perspective of finite mixture modelling. The book is designed to show finite mixture and Markov switching models are formulated, what structures they imply on the data, their potential uses, and how they are estimated. Presenting its concepts informally without sacrificing mathematical correctness, it will serve a wide readership including statisticians as well as biologists, economists, engineers, financial and market researchers.

### Finite Mixture Models

An up-to-date, comprehensive account of major issues in finite mixture modeling This volume provides an up-to-date account of the theory and applications of modeling via finite mixture distributions. With an emphasis on the applications of mixture models in both mainstream analysis and other areas such as unsupervised pattern recognition, speech recognition, and medical imaging, the book describes the formulations of the finite mixture approach, details its methodology, discusses aspects of its implementation, and illustrates its application in many common statistical contexts. Major issues discussed in this book include identifiability problems, actual fitting of finite mixtures through use of the EM algorithm, properties of the maximum likelihood estimators so obtained, assessment of the number of components to be used in the mixture, and the applicability of asymptotic theory in providing a basis for the solutions to some of these problems. The author also considers how the EM algorithm can be scaled to handle the fitting of mixture models to very large databases, as in data mining applications. This comprehensive, practical guide: * Provides more than 800 references-40% published since 1995 * Includes an appendix listing available mixture software * Links statistical literature with machine learning and pattern recognition literature * Contains more than 100 helpful graphs, charts, and tables Finite Mixture Models is an important resource for both applied and theoretical statisticians as well as for researchers in the many areas in which finite mixture models can be used to analyze data.

### Mixtures

This book uses the EM (expectation maximization) algorithm tosimultaneously estimate the missing data and unknown parameter(s)associated with a data set. The parameters describe the componentdistributions of the mixture; the distributions may be continuousor discrete. The editors provide a complete account of the applications,mathematical structure and statistical analysis of finite mixturedistributions along with MCMC computational methods, together witha range of detailed discussions covering the applications of themethods and features chapters from the leading experts on thesubject. The applications are drawn from scientific discipline,including biostatistics, computer science, ecology and finance.This area of statistics is important to a range of disciplines, andits methodology attracts interest from researchers in the fields inwhich it can be applied.

### State-Space Methods for Time Series Analysis

The state-space approach provides a formal framework where any result or procedure developed for a basic model can be seamlessly applied to a standard formulation written in state-space form. Moreover, it can accommodate with a reasonable effort nonstandard situations, such as observation errors, aggregation constraints, or missing in-sample values. Exploring the advantages of this approach, State-Space Methods for Time Series Analysis: Theory, Applications and Software presents many computational procedures that can be applied to a previously specified linear model in state-space form. After discussing the formulation of the state-space model, the book illustrates the flexibility of the state-space representation and covers the main state estimation algorithms: filtering and smoothing. It then shows how to compute the Gaussian likelihood for unknown coefficients in the state-space matrices of a given model before introducing subspace methods and their application. It also discusses signal extraction, describes two algorithms to obtain the VARMAX matrices corresponding to any linear state-space model, and addresses several issues relating to the aggregation and disaggregation of time series. The book concludes with a cross-sectional extension to the classical state-space formulation in order to accommodate longitudinal or panel data. Missing data is a common occurrence here, and the book explains imputation procedures necessary to treat missingness in both exogenous and endogenous variables. Web Resource The authors’ E4 MATLAB® toolbox offers all the computational procedures, administrative and analytical functions, and related materials for time series analysis. This flexible, powerful, and free software tool enables readers to replicate the practical examples in the text and apply the procedures to their own work.

### Nonlinear Mixture Models

This book, written by two mathematicians from the University of Southern California, provides a broad introduction to the important subject of nonlinear mixture models from a Bayesian perspective. It contains background material, a brief description of Markov chain theory, as well as novel algorithms and their applications. It is self-contained and unified in presentation, which makes it ideal for use as an advanced textbook by graduate students and as a reference for independent researchers. The explanations in the book are detailed enough to capture the interest of the curious reader, and complete enough to provide the necessary background material needed to go further into the subject and explore the research literature. In this book the authors present Bayesian methods of analysis for nonlinear, hierarchical mixture models, with a finite, but possibly unknown, number of components. These methods are then applied to various problems including population pharmacokinetics and gene expression analysis. In population pharmacokinetics, the nonlinear mixture model, based on previous clinical data, becomes the prior distribution for individual therapy. For gene expression data, one application included in the book is to determine which genes should be associated with the same component of the mixture (also known as a clustering problem). The book also contains examples of computer programs written in BUGS. This is the first book of its kind to cover many of the topics in this field. Contents:IntroductionMathematical Description of Nonlinear Mixture ModelsLabel Switching and TrappingTreatment of Mixture Models with an Unknown Number of ComponentsApplications of BDMCMC, KLMCMC, and RPSNonparametric MethodsBayesian Clustering Methods Readership: Graduate students and researchers in bioinformatics, mathematical biology, probability and statistics, mathematical modeling, and pharmacokinetics. Keywords:Nonlinear Mixture Models;Bayesian Analysis;Monte Carlo Markov Chain

### Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2018, held in Hanoi, Vietnam, in March 2018.The 39 revised full papers presented in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 76 initial submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on uncertainty management and decision support; clustering and classification; machine learning applications; statistical methods; and econometric applications.

### Inference in Hidden Markov Models

This book is a comprehensive treatment of inference for hidden Markov models, including both algorithms and statistical theory. Topics range from filtering and smoothing of the hidden Markov chain to parameter estimation, Bayesian methods and estimation of the number of states. In a unified way the book covers both models with finite state spaces and models with continuous state spaces (also called state-space models) requiring approximate simulation-based algorithms that are also described in detail. Many examples illustrate the algorithms and theory. This book builds on recent developments to present a self-contained view.

### Hidden Markov Models for Bioinformatics

Hidden Markov Models for Bioinformatics

### Advances in Data Analysis, Data Handling and Business Intelligence

Data Analysis, Data Handling and Business Intelligence are research areas at the intersection of computer science, artificial intelligence, mathematics, and statistics. They cover general methods and techniques that can be applied to a vast set of applications such as in marketing, finance, economics, engineering, linguistics, archaeology, musicology, medical science, and biology. This volume contains the revised versions of selected papers presented during the 32nd Annual Conference of the German Classification Society (Gesellschaft für Klassifikation, GfKl). The conference, which was organized in cooperation with the British Classification Society (BCS) and the Dutch/Flemish Classification Society (VOC), was hosted by Helmut-Schmidt-University, Hamburg, Germany, in July 2008.

### Nonlinear Financial Econometrics: Markov Switching Models, Persistence and Nonlinear Cointegration

This book proposes new methods to value equity and model the Markowitz efficient frontier using Markov switching models and provide new evidence and solutions to capture the persistence observed in stock returns across developed and emerging markets.

### Introduction to Applied Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists

This book outlines Bayesian statistical analysis in great detail, from the development of a model through the process of making statistical inference. The key feature of this book is that it covers models that are most commonly used in social science research - including the linear regression model, generalized linear models, hierarchical models, and multivariate regression models - and it thoroughly develops each real-data example in painstaking detail.

### Fundamentals and Advanced Techniques in Derivatives Hedging

This book covers the theory of derivatives pricing and hedging as well as techniques used in mathematical finance. The authors use a top-down approach, starting with fundamentals before moving to applications, and present theoretical developments alongside various exercises, providing many examples of practical interest.A large spectrum of concepts and mathematical tools that are usually found in separate monographs are presented here. In addition to the no-arbitrage theory in full generality, this book also explores models and practical hedging and pricing issues. Fundamentals and Advanced Techniques in Derivatives Hedging further introduces advanced methods in probability and analysis, including Malliavin calculus and the theory of viscosity solutions, as well as the recent theory of stochastic targets and its use in risk management, making it the first textbook covering this topic. Graduate students in applied mathematics with an understanding of probability theory and stochastic calculus will find this book useful to gain a deeper understanding of fundamental concepts and methods in mathematical finance.

### Empirical Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation

A synthesis of the authors' groundbreaking econometric research on automatic model selection, which uses powerful computational algorithms and theory evaluation.

### Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions

This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.

### Discrete Stochastic Processes and Applications

This unique text for beginning graduate students gives a self-contained introduction to the mathematical properties of stochastics and presents their applications to Markov processes, coding theory, population dynamics, and search engine design. The book is ideal for a newly designed course in an introduction to probability and information theory. Prerequisites include working knowledge of linear algebra, calculus, and probability theory. The first part of the text focuses on the rigorous theory of Markov processes on countable spaces (Markov chains) and provides the basis to developing solid probabilistic intuition without the need for a course in measure theory. The approach taken is gradual beginning with the case of discrete time and moving on to that of continuous time. The second part of this text is more applied; its core introduces various uses of convexity in probability and presents a nice treatment of entropy.

### Bayesian Non- and Semi-parametric Methods and Applications

This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number of normal components in the mixture or an infinite number bounded only by the sample size. By using flexible distributional approximations instead of fixed parametric models, the Bayesian approach can reap the advantages of an efficient method that models all of the structure in the data while retaining desirable smoothing properties. Non-Bayesian non-parametric methods often require additional ad hoc rules to avoid "overfitting," in which resulting density approximates are nonsmooth. With proper priors, the Bayesian approach largely avoids overfitting, while retaining flexibility. This book provides methods for assessing informative priors that require only simple data normalizations. The book also applies the mixture of the normals approximation method to a number of important models in microeconometrics and marketing, including the non-parametric and semi-parametric regression models, instrumental variables problems, and models of heterogeneity. In addition, the author has written a free online software package in R, "bayesm," which implements all of the non-parametric models discussed in the book.

### Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models

In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.

### Mixtures

This book uses the EM (expectation maximization) algorithm tosimultaneously estimate the missing data and unknown parameter(s)associated with a data set. The parameters describe the componentdistributions of the mixture; the distributions may be continuousor discrete. The editors provide a complete account of the applications,mathematical structure and statistical analysis of finite mixturedistributions along with MCMC computational methods, together witha range of detailed discussions covering the applications of themethods and features chapters from the leading experts on thesubject. The applications are drawn from scientific discipline,including biostatistics, computer science, ecology and finance.This area of statistics is important to a range of disciplines, andits methodology attracts interest from researchers in the fields inwhich it can be applied.

### Handbook of Mixture Analysis

Mixture analysis is very active research topic in statistics and machine learning. It is a good timing for a Handbook to present a broad overview of the methods and applications, suitable for graduate students and young researchers new to the field. This Handbook is divided into two main parts; the first part covers all the methods, with illustrative examples and guidance on computing where appropriate; and the second part includes some more advanced methodological topics, and a series of case studies presenting applications of mixture analysis in a number of fields, including genomics, medicine, economics, finance and more.

### Hidden Markov Models

As more applications are found, interest in Hidden Markov Models continues to grow. Following comments and feedback from colleagues, students and other working with Hidden Markov Models the corrected 3rd printing of this volume contains clarifications, improvements and some new material, including results on smoothing for linear Gaussian dynamics. In Chapter 2 the derivation of the basic filters related to the Markov chain are each presented explicitly, rather than as special cases of one general filter. Furthermore, equations for smoothed estimates are given. The dynamics for the Kalman filter are derived as special cases of the authors’ general results and new expressions for a Kalman smoother are given. The Chapters on the control of Hidden Markov Chains are expanded and clarified. The revised Chapter 4 includes state estimation for discrete time Markov processes and Chapter 12 has a new section on robust control.

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