We live in a world that is not quite "right." The central tenet of statistical inquiry is that Observation = Truth + Errorbecause even the most careful of scientific investigations have always been bedeviled by uncertainty. Our attempts to measure things are plagued with small errors. Our attempts to understand our world are blocked by blunders. And, unfortunately, in some cases, people have been known to lie. In this long-awaited follow-up to his well-regarded bestseller, The Lady Tasting Tea, David Salsburg opens a door to the amazing widespread use of statistical methods by looking at historical examples of errors, blunders and lies from areas as diverse as archeology, law, economics, medicine, psychology, sociology, Biblical studies, history, and war-time espionage. In doing so, he shows how, upon closer statistical investigation, errors and blunders often lead to useful information. And how statistical methods have been used to uncover falsified data. Beginning with Edmund Halley's examination of the Transit of Venus and ending with a discussion of how many tanks Rommel had during the Second World War, the author invites the reader to come along on this easily accessible and fascinating journey of how to identify the nature of errors, minimize the effects of blunders, and figure out who the liars are.
How to Tell the Difference
Author: David Salsburg
Publisher: CRC Press
Category: Errors, Scientific
Examines the works of statistics pioneer Ronald Fisher as well as other revolutionary thinkers in the field, covering the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories, the methods that contributed to Japan's post-war rebuilding, a pivotal early study on a Guinness beer cask, and more. Reprint. 15,000 first printing.
How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century
Author: David Salsburg
In the face of conflicting claims about some treatments, behaviors, and policies, the question arises: What is the most scientifically rigorous way to draw conclusions about cause and effect in the study of humans? In this introduction to causal inference, Paul Rosenbaum explains key concepts and methods through real-world examples.
An Introduction to Causal Inference
Author: Paul R. Rosenbaum
Publisher: Harvard University Press
To many outsiders, mathematicians appear to think like computers, grimly grinding away with a strict formal logic and moving methodically--even algorithmically--from one black-and-white deduction to another. Yet mathematicians often describe their most important breakthroughs as creative, intuitive responses to ambiguity, contradiction, and paradox. A unique examination of this less-familiar aspect of mathematics, How Mathematicians Think reveals that mathematics is a profoundly creative activity and not just a body of formalized rules and results. Nonlogical qualities, William Byers shows, play an essential role in mathematics. Ambiguities, contradictions, and paradoxes can arise when ideas developed in different contexts come into contact. Uncertainties and conflicts do not impede but rather spur the development of mathematics. Creativity often means bringing apparently incompatible perspectives together as complementary aspects of a new, more subtle theory. The secret of mathematics is not to be found only in its logical structure. The creative dimensions of mathematical work have great implications for our notions of mathematical and scientific truth, and How Mathematicians Think provides a novel approach to many fundamental questions. Is mathematics objectively true? Is it discovered or invented? And is there such a thing as a "final" scientific theory? Ultimately, How Mathematicians Think shows that the nature of mathematical thinking can teach us a great deal about the human condition itself.
Using Ambiguity, Contradiction, and Paradox to Create Mathematics
Author: William Byers
Publisher: Princeton University Press
A Panorama of Statistics: Perspectives, Puzzles and Paradoxes in Statistics Eric Sowey, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Peter Petocz, Department of Statistics, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia This book is a stimulating panoramic tour – quite different from a textbook journey – of the world of statistics in both its theory and practice, for teachers, students and practitioners. At each stop on the tour, the authors investigate unusual and quirky aspects of statistics, highlighting historical, biographical and philosophical dimensions of this field of knowledge. Each chapter opens with perspectives on its theme, often from several points of view. Five original and thought-provoking questions follow. These aim at widening readers’ knowledge and deepening their insight. Scattered among the questions are entertaining puzzles to solve and tantalising paradoxes to explain. Readers can compare their own statistical discoveries with the authors’ detailed answers to all the questions. The writing is lively and inviting, the ideas are rewarding, and the material is extensively cross-referenced. A Panorama of Statistics: Leads readers to discover the fascinations of statistics. Is an enjoyable companion to an undergraduate statistics textbook. Is an enriching source of knowledge for statistics teachers and practitioners. Is unique among statistics books today for its memorable content and engaging style. Lending itself equally to reading through and to dipping into, A Panorama of Statistics will surprise teachers, students and practitioners by the variety of ways in which statistics can capture and hold their interest. Reviews: "As befits the authors' statement that ‘this is not a textbook’, the structure is unusual. There are twenty-five chapters organised in five sections, each beginning with a brief perspective of a theme in statistics and finishing with five questions related to that theme. The answers provided to the questions, in section six, are as discursive and illuminating as the main body of the text. Even if you are pretty sure you know the answer, it is always worth checking what the authors have to say. Chances are that you will learn something every time. The glimpses and insights given into this enormous and far-reaching discipline succeed in being bewitching, entertaining and inviting; coverage was never the aim." "In summary, this splendid book lives up to the four ‘p-values’ of its title. It is panoramic in the scope of its survey of statistics, it is full of illuminating perspectives, it sets entertaining and challenging puzzles, and it explores fascinating paradoxes. Read it, enjoy it and learn from it." From Neil Sheldon, Teaching Statistics, volume 9, no. 2, May 2017. __________
Perspectives, Puzzles and Paradoxes in Statistics
Author: Eric Sowey,Peter Petocz
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Author: Benjamin James Winer
Category: Experimental design
Students in the sciences, economics, social sciences, and medicine take an introductory statistics course. And yet statistics can be notoriously difficult for instructors to teach and for students to learn. To help overcome these challenges, Gelman and Nolan have put together this fascinating and thought-provoking book. Based on years of teaching experience the book provides a wealth of demonstrations, activities, examples, and projects that involve active student participation. Part I of the book presents a large selection of activities for introductory statistics courses and has chapters such as 'First week of class'— with exercises to break the ice and get students talking; then descriptive statistics, graphics, linear regression, data collection (sampling and experimentation), probability, inference, and statistical communication. Part II gives tips on what works and what doesn't, how to set up effective demonstrations, how to encourage students to participate in class and to work effectively in group projects. Course plans for introductory statistics, statistics for social scientists, and communication and graphics are provided. Part III presents material for more advanced courses on topics such as decision theory, Bayesian statistics, sampling, and data science.
A Bag of Tricks
Author: Andrew Gelman,Deborah Nolan
Publisher: Oxford University Press
For disciplines concerned with human well-being, such as medicine, psychology, and law, statistics must be used in accordance with standards for ethical practice. A Statistical Guide for the Ethically Perplexed illustrates the proper use of probabilistic and statistical reasoning in the behavioral, social, and biomedical sciences. Designed to be consulted when learning formal statistical techniques, the text describes common instances of both correct and false statistical and probabilistic reasoning. Lauded for their contributions to statistics, psychology, and psychometrics, the authors make statistical methods relevant to readers’ day-to-day lives by including real historical situations that demonstrate the role of statistics in reasoning and decision making. The historical vignettes encompass the English case of Sally Clark, breast cancer screening, risk and gambling, the Federal Rules of Evidence, "high-stakes" testing, regulatory issues in medicine, difficulties with observational studies, ethics in human experiments, health statistics, and much more. In addition to these topics, seven U.S. Supreme Court decisions reflect the influence of statistical and psychometric reasoning and interpretation/misinterpretation. Exploring the intersection of ethics and statistics, this comprehensive guide assists readers in becoming critical and ethical consumers and producers of statistical reasoning and analyses. It will help them reason correctly and use statistics in an ethical manner.
Author: Lawrence Hubert,Howard Wainer
Publisher: CRC Press
This book takes a fresh look at the popular and well-established method of maximum likelihood for statistical estimation and inference. It begins with an intuitive introduction to the concepts and background of likelihood, and moves through to the latest developments in maximum likelihood methodology, including general latent variable models and new material for the practical implementation of integrated likelihood using the free ADMB software. Fundamental issues of statistical inference are also examined, with a presentation of some of the philosophical debates underlying the choice of statistical paradigm. Key features: Provides an accessible introduction to pragmatic maximum likelihood modelling. Covers more advanced topics, including general forms of latent variable models (including non-linear and non-normal mixed-effects and state-space models) and the use of maximum likelihood variants, such as estimating equations, conditional likelihood, restricted likelihood and integrated likelihood. Adopts a practical approach, with a focus on providing the relevant tools required by researchers and practitioners who collect and analyze real data. Presents numerous examples and case studies across a wide range of applications including medicine, biology and ecology. Features applications from a range of disciplines, with implementation in R, SAS and/or ADMB. Provides all program code and software extensions on a supporting website. Confines supporting theory to the final chapters to maintain a readable and pragmatic focus of the preceding chapters. This book is not just an accessible and practical text about maximum likelihood, it is a comprehensive guide to modern maximum likelihood estimation and inference. It will be of interest to readers of all levels, from novice to expert. It will be of great benefit to researchers, and to students of statistics from senior undergraduate to graduate level. For use as a course text, exercises are provided at the end of each chapter.
With Examples in R, SAS and ADMB
Author: Russell B. Millar
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
This book is nothing less than a complete and comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art of terrorism informatics. It covers the application of advanced methodologies and information fusion and analysis. It also lays out techniques to acquire, integrate, process, analyze, and manage the diversity of terrorism-related information for international and homeland security-related applications. The book details three major areas of terrorism research: prevention, detection, and established governmental responses to terrorism. It systematically examines the current and ongoing research, including recent case studies and application of terrorism informatics techniques. The coverage then presents the critical and relevant social/technical areas to terrorism research including social, privacy, data confidentiality, and legal challenges.
Knowledge Management and Data Mining for Homeland Security
Author: Hsinchun Chen,Edna Reid,Joshua Sinai,Andrew Silke,Boaz Ganor
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Category: Business & Economics
This graduate-level textbook is primarily aimed at graduate students of statistics, mathematics, science, and engineering who have had an undergraduate course in statistics, an upper division course in analysis, and some acquaintance with measure theoretic probability. It provides a rigorous presentation of the core of mathematical statistics. Part I of this book constitutes a one-semester course on basic parametric mathematical statistics. Part II deals with the large sample theory of statistics - parametric and nonparametric, and its contents may be covered in one semester as well. Part III provides brief accounts of a number of topics of current interest for practitioners and other disciplines whose work involves statistical methods.
Author: Rabi Bhattacharya,Lizhen Lin,Victor Patrangenaru
This book constitutes the refereed postconference proceedings of the 4th IFIP WG 9.2, 9.6, 11.6, 11.7/FIDIS International Summer School, held in Brno, Czech Republic, in September 2008. The 20 revised papers were carefully selected from numerous submissions during two rounds of reviewing. They are grouped in topical sections on information, ethics, identifiers; privacy issues; wireless security and privacy; challenges of emerging technologies; privacy-enhanced and anonymous applications; business and organizational perspectives; privacy awareness and individual control; and anonymity attacks and analysis. These interdisciplinary contributions target researchers and practitioners interested in the technical, social, ethical or legal perspectives of increasing diversity of information and communication technologies.
4th IFIP WG 9.2, 9.6, 11.6, 11.7/FIDIS International Summer School, Brno, Czech Republic, September 1-7, 2008, Revised Selected Papers
Author: Vashek Matyáš,Simone Fischer-Hübner,Daniel Cvrcek
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Celebrating the life of an admired pioneer in statistics In this captivating and inspiring memoir, world-renowned statistician George E. P. Box offers a firsthand account of his life and statistical work. Writing in an engaging, charming style, Dr. Box reveals the unlikely events that led him to a career in statistics, beginning with his job as a chemist conducting experiments for the British army during World War II. At this turning point in his life and career, Dr. Box taught himself the statistical methods necessary to analyze his own findings when there were no statisticians available to check his work. Throughout his autobiography, Dr. Box expertly weaves a personal and professional narrative to illustrate the effects his work had on his life and vice-versa. Interwoven between his research with time series analysis, experimental design, and the quality movement, Dr. Box recounts coming to the United States, his family life, and stories of the people who mean the most to him. This fascinating account balances the influence of both personal and professional relationships to demonstrate the extraordinary life of one of the greatest and most influential statisticians of our time. An Accidental Statistician also features: • Two forewords written by Dr. Box’s former colleagues and closest confidants • Personal insights from more than a dozen statisticians on how Dr. Box has influenced and continues to touch their careers and lives • Numerous, previously unpublished photos from the author’s personal collection An Accidental Statistician is a compelling read for statisticians in education or industry, mathematicians, engineers, and anyone interested in the life story of an influential intellectual who altered the world of modern statistics.
The Life and Memories of George E. P. Box
Author: George E. P. Box
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Category: Biography & Autobiography
Author: Chiyuki Aoi,Cedric De Coning,Ramesh Chandra Thakur
Publisher: United Nations Univ
Category: Political Science
Provides an analysis of the lead-up to, the outcome, and the aftermath of Fiji's historic 2006 election - including the December coup. Contributions from ex-Vice President Ratu Joni Madraiwiwi; ousted Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase; interim Minister for Finance Mahendra Chaudhry; and an array of leading commentators.
The 2006 Campaign and Its Aftermath
Author: Jonathan Fraenkel,Stewart Firth
Publisher: ANU E Press
Category: Political Science
The get-it-over-with-quickly approach to statistics has been encouraged - and often necessitated - by the short time allotted to it in most curriculums. If included at all, statistics is presented briefly, as a task to be endured mainly because pertinent questions may appear in subsequent examinations for licensure or other certifications. However, in later professional activities, clinicians and biomedical researchers will constantly be confronted with reports containing statistical expressions and analyses. Not just a set of cookbook recipes, Principles of Medical Statistics is designed to get you thinking about data and statistical procedures. It covers many new statistical methods and approaches like box plots, stem and leaf plots, concepts of stability, the bootstrap, and the jackknife methods of resampling. The book is arranged in a logical sequence that advances from simple to more elaborate results. The text describes all the conventional statistical procedures, and offers reasonably rigorous accounts of many of their mathematical justifications. Although the conventional mathematical principles are given a respectful account, the book provides a distinctly clinical orientation with examples and teaching exercises drawn from real world medical phenomena. Statistical procedures are an integral part of the basic background needed by biomedical researchers, students, and clinicians. Containing much more than most elementary texts, Principles of Medical Statistics fills the gap often found in the current curriculum. It repairs the imbalance that gives so little attention to the role of statistics as a prime component of basic biomedical education.
Author: Alvan R. Feinstein
Publisher: CRC Press
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the Third International Conference on Cognitive Computing and Information Processing, CCIP 2017, held in Bengaluru, India, in December 2017. The 43 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 130 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on cognitive computing in medical information processing; cognitive computing and its applications; cognitive computing in video analytics.
Third International Conference, CCIP 2017, Bengaluru, India, December 15-16, 2017, Revised Selected Papers
Author: T.N. Nagabhushan,V. N. Manjunath Aradhya,Prabhudev Jagadeesh,Seema Shukla,Chayadevi M.L.
This book offers a unified approach to the study of crises, large fluctuations, dependence and contagion effects in economics and finance. It covers important topics in statistical modeling and estimation, which combine the notions of copulas and heavy tails -- two particularly valuable tools of today's research in economics, finance, econometrics and other fields -- in order to provide a new way of thinking about such vital problems as diversification of risk and propagation of crises through financial markets due to contagion phenomena, among others. The aim is to arm today's economists with a toolbox suited for analyzing multivariate data with many outliers and with arbitrary dependence patterns. The methods and topics discussed and used in the book include, in particular, majorization theory, heavy-tailed distributions and copula functions -- all applied to study robustness of economic, financial and statistical models, and estimation methods to heavy tails and dependence.
Topics in Dependence Modelling in Economics and Finance
Author: Rustam Ibragimov,Artem Prokhorov
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Animals and Medicine: The Contribution of Animal Experiments to the Control of Disease offers a detailed, scholarly historical review of the critical role animal experiments have played in advancing medical knowledge. Laboratory animals have been essential to this progress, and the knowledge gained has saved countless lives—both human and animal. Unfortunately, those opposed to using animals in research have often employed doctored evidence to suggest that the practice has impeded medical progress. This volume presents the articles Jack Botting wrote for the Research Defence Society News from 1991 to 1996, papers which provided scientists with the information needed to rebut such claims. Collected, they can now reach a wider readership interested in understanding the part of animal experiments in the history of medicine—from the discovery of key vaccines to the advancement of research on a range of diseases, among them hypertension, kidney failure and cancer.This book is essential reading for anyone curious about the role of animal experimentation in the history of science from the nineteenth century to the present.
The Contribution of Animal Experiments to the Control of Disease
Author: Jack Botting
Publisher: Open Book Publishers